Reporting Live From Taiwan

“Would you like to visit the Taiwanese opera?” my local “sherpa” asked, mapping out stops on my six-day itinerary.

I declined. Not this time.

As much as I’d like to sit in the velvet seats of a Taipei opera house, this trip has nothing to do with sightseeing.

Friday, I boarded a plane with my brother Mason — roughly 20 hours in the air from South Florida, plus the long crawl through airports and layovers — to land in a place that may decide the fate of the 21st century .

Because we may be on the eve of World War III… And that’s not me being hyperbolic.

The threat of a Chinese invasion is real, and if it happens, it won’t just redraw maps in Asia. It will shatter the global order — and the global economy — overnight.

I can’t reveal all the names on my itinerary yet, but I’ll be sitting down with figures at the highest levels of Taiwan’s government and defense.

I’ll also be walking the factory floors of semiconductor fabs — the crown jewels of global technology — where chips are born that power modernity. Mason will share more about that in a moment.

But our mission has one purpose: to bring back the best intelligence, the best ideas and the most actionable insights. Because if Beijing makes its move, the world as we know it changes forever.

A Brief History of a Dangerous Triangle

The roots of this standoff between China and Taiwan go back more than 70 years.

When Mao’s communists seized mainland China in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists fled across the strait and set up a rival government — the Republic of China — in Taiwan.

Beijing has insisted ever since that Taiwan is a renegade province.

Washington, meanwhile, has walked a tightrope: officially recognizing “One China,” while sustaining an unofficial, but very real, partnership with Taiwan.

For decades, the U.S. relied on strategic ambiguity — not saying whether we’d defend Taiwan, but signaling enough to keep Beijing cautious.

That shadow game is nearing its end. Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to seize Taiwan by 2027.

Not necessarily a declaration of invasion, but a chilling readiness deadline that the Pentagon is taking very seriously.

The Loop That Never Closed

This isn’t Taiwan’s first brush with catastrophe. Four times in the past 75 years, the island has teetered on the edge of war…

• The first crisis came in the early 1950s, when Mao shelled Taiwan’s offshore islands. Eisenhower responded by openly weighing nuclear options — deterrence through raw force

• The second was 1958, when the PLA escalated shelling again and the U.S. rushed arms and reinforcements

• The third was 1995–96, when China tested missiles in the Taiwan Strait to intimidate Taiwan’s voters. Washington sent carriers steaming through — a message Beijing couldn’t miss

• The fourth crisis started in 2022, when then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi landed in Taipei on a congressional visit. China’s fury was volcanic! The PLA encircled Taiwan with live-fire drills and ballistic missile launches, rehearsing a blockade. It looked like the overture to war.

That loop has never closed, to be clear. It’s still open, and still dangerous.

Keep in mind, the Chinese Communist Party thinks in years, not election cycles. Could a Taiwan invasion be part of Xi’s five-year plan, starting with Pelosi’s visit in 2022?

Xi’s already told his military to be ready by 2027. Plus, he’s purged political rivals, stockpiled grain and oil and re-engineered China’s economy for wartime resilience.

Xi doesn’t just want Taiwan back — he wants the world to see America powerless to stop him.

Taiwan’s Own Plan: The Hedgehog

Taiwan knows it can’t match China ship for ship, plane for plane or soldier for soldier. So Taiwan is preparing differently.

The strategy is called the “hedgehog.” Make Chinese provocation painful in the extreme.

Instead of billion-dollar prestige weapons, Taiwan is buying tens of thousands of drones, loitering munitions and coastal defense missiles.

Think Ukraine’s success against Russia’s navy and armor.

Taiwan wants to replicate that on a larger, deadlier scale: swarms of cheap drones, robotic sea craft designed to ram warships and software to knit them into one fighting network.

The goal is straightforward: Turn any Chinese invasion into a bloodbath.

The Human Element

For all the talk of weaponry, don’t forget the Taiwanese people. Two-thirds of its citizens now identify solely as Taiwanese — not Chinese.

More than 80% flatly reject Beijing’s “one country, two systems” framework. And the younger generation especially wants nothing to do with Communist rule.

That means this wouldn’t just be a military conquest. It would be a political occupation of 23 million citizens who want no part of it.

Taiwan’s government regularly stages air raid drills and civil defense exercises; students in schools practice evacuations, and families keep “go bags” packed.

For everyday life on the island, the shadow of conflict is never far away.

If Beijing moves, it won’t just face Taiwan’s military. It will face Taiwan’s spirit of independence — and a population primed to resist.

The Costs of War

Bloomberg Economics puts the global cost of an invasion at $10 trillion — roughly 10% of global GDP. That would make it the largest economic shock of the modern era.

They estimate U.S. GDP alone could shrink nearly 7% in the first year of such a conflict.

Markets would collapse overnight. Supply chains would snap. Inflation would spike.

But this isn’t just about economics. If Beijing succeeds, it signals the end of American dominance in the Pacific.

Allies like Japan, the Philippines and Australia would be forced to recalibrate. And the tremors would spread well beyond Asia.

Europe, the Middle East, Africa — all would start hedging bets on a new global power.

Those are the real costs. And that’s why this trip matters.

Boots on the Ground

We’re on a six-day fact-finding mission. Jet lag notwithstanding, I expect Mason and I will barely sleep.

We’ll be sitting across from generals, government ministers and C-suite executives, asking the questions that cut through the noise.

We’ll be walking factory floors where chips are born that power automobiles, encrypt bank accounts and anchor the radars, satellites and missiles that decide wars before they’re fought.

Rationally, an invasion may not make sense. China would unravel 30-plus years of its own economic progress! But geopolitics isn’t about common sense. It’s about the choices of leaders — autocrats most of all.

Xi Jinping has tipped his hand. He’s preparing.

That’s why I’m here in Taiwan: to separate the signal from noise. And Mason will bring his market expertise to what this means for portfolios, for investments, for America’s future.

We urge you to look out for for October’s issue of Money & Power. It will be our most intensive breakdown yet, carrying with it every conversation, every revelation, every ounce of insight from this mission.

Because if World War III ignites in the Pacific, I want you prepared. And I want you to know the truth — straight from the front line.