Unlocked

We got some data this week that may help the Fed stay on track for a December rate cut&hellip;
On Wednesday this week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for October was released showing that prices increased 2.6% over the previous year.
This number was slightly higher than the 2.4% increase we saw in September, but it was still on target for what many economists were expecting.
Then on Thursday, a report from the Labor Department came out that showed that the number of people filing new unemployment applications fell for the week ending November 9th.
This is somewhat of a relief after unemployment claims surged in October due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton and the factory workers&rsquo; strike at Boeing.
So economists are hopeful that job growth will continue to regain steam as we continue through the rest of November.
With labor market conditions easing and inflation coming in on track with expectations, this gives the Fed more incentive to cut interest rates again at their meeting on December 18th.
We&rsquo;ll get more data on inflation and employment before that meeting so we&rsquo;ll see how those numbers shake out, but as of now, rates look like they&rsquo;re still coming down which is good for businesses that need to borrow capital to continue growing.
Not only that but with Trump winning the election we&rsquo;re about to move into a season where we&rsquo;ll likely see less regulation, less taxation, and more pro-business policies.
So businesses are about to grow and flourish, sending the prices of stocks shooting higher.
Now we also have to keep in mind that we may see higher tariffs, which could potentially be inflationary, so we have to think about that too when it comes to what the Fed will do as we move into 2025.
But all in all, I think we&rsquo;re in a very good place when it comes to potential business innovation and growth.
And the market seems to know this too as we&rsquo;re currently sitting at all-time highs on the S&amp;P 500.
So the market outlook looks bright as we approach the end of the year, which means we&rsquo;ll have plenty of opportunities to add innovative companies to our portfolio.

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Weekly Update: Why the Bulls Could Run Wild in 2025

Updates

Last night, America chose disruption over the status quo.
By the time Wisconsin's electoral votes put Donald Trump over the top at 4:30 AM, the markets had already spoken: Trump's return to power would kick off a new era of explosive growth and opportunity.
The Dow surged 3% at the opening bell. Bitcoin smashed through $75,000 to reach all-time highs. And Tesla stock rocketed up 15% as investors priced in a new reality where Elon Musk would help shape government policy.
Make no mistake - this wasn't just an election. It was an economic revolution.
<h3>The Red Wave That Changed Everything</h3>
State by state, Trump swept through the battlegrounds that matter most - Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and finally Wisconsin - to secure his return to the White House. And this time, he's bringing an army with him.
Republicans didn't just take the White House - they seized control of the Senate with a stronger majority than Trump's first term and are within striking distance of the House. With more Republicans backing him than ever and a stronger hold on his party, Trump is set to push through bigger changes than before.
The markets are already pricing in the tsunami of change ahead: lower corporate taxes, slashed regulations, and an aggressive America First trade policy that could reshape global commerce.
<h3>Musk Emerges as Washington's New Secret Weapon</h3>
No one did more to secure Trump's victory than Elon Musk.&nbsp;
The world's richest man bet big on Trump, contributing over $130 million and stumping across battleground states.
That investment is already paying off.&nbsp;
Tesla shares skyrocketed on expectations that Trump will accelerate approval for full self-driving vehicles and robotaxis.
SpaceX stands to benefit from increased defense spending and an accelerated timeline to reach Mars.
But Musk's influence extends far beyond his own companies.&nbsp;
Trump has tapped him to lead a new "Department of Government Efficiency" with a mandate to slash $2 trillion in federal spending.&nbsp;
For the first time, the tech industry will have a representative in government with direct influence over policy.
<h3>Tech's New Dawn</h3>
While critics warned that Trump would lead to the destruction of America, Silicon Valley is poised for unprecedented growth.&nbsp;
The Nasdaq's 3% surge today is just the preview of tech's next chapter.
With Vice President JD Vance - a former venture capitalist with deep ties to Silicon Valley - Trump's administration brings a unique understanding of the tech industry to Washington.&nbsp;
Vance previously worked directly with Peter Thiel - another Trump supporter who is also one of the founders of Paypal and Palantir&hellip; and an early investor in Facebook.
Vance's experience with Thiel positions him perfectly to bridge the gap between government and innovation.
Trump's team has promised investment in AI and quantum computing&hellip; signaling a new chapter in America's tech dominance.&nbsp;
Defense contracts are expected to pour billions into cutting-edge research, while looser regulations could help driverless cars hit the road more quickly.&nbsp;
His controversial tariff policies could once again make America a hub for semiconductor manufacturing.&nbsp;
For innovative companies willing to align with Trump's "America First" vision, the opportunities appear limitless.&nbsp;
From space technology to quantum computing, the next four years could see American tech grow more powerful than ever.
<h3>The Crypto Revolution Goes Mainstream</h3>
Perhaps no industry celebrated Trump's victory more enthusiastically than crypto.&nbsp;
Bitcoin's surge past $75,000 is just the beginning.
Trump has vowed to make America the world's "crypto capital," of the world.
His plans include adding Bitcoin as a federal reserve asset and promising to end the SEC's crackdown on digital currencies.&nbsp;
With Republicans comfortably controlling Congress, crypto-friendly laws seem more likely than ever.&nbsp;
Apart from fundraising for Trump, the crypto industry also poured money into congressional campaigns.
In a stunning upset for crypto haters, Bernie Moreno bet Ohio's Senator Sherrod Brown, who had long led the Senate's fight against digital currencies.
<h3>A New Era of Opportunity</h3>
For investors positioned correctly, the next four years could generate generational wealth.&nbsp;
Trump's combination of tax cuts, deregulation, and pro-business policies creates a perfect storm for growth.
The administration's focus on domestic manufacturing, energy independence, and technological innovation opens numerous paths for savvy investors.&nbsp;
From AI and autonomous vehicles to crypto and space exploration, entirely new industries stand ready to explode.
The message is clear: while the media focuses on political drama, smart money is already moving to capitalize on the Trump economy 2.0.&nbsp;
Those who recognize and act on these opportunities early stand to reap extraordinary rewards.
The revolution isn't coming - it's already here. The only question is: are you ready to profit from it?

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How Trump's Victory Reshapes the Investment Landscape

For a brief moment on Tuesday, crypto traders held their breath.
Bitcoin was just $175 away from making history.
After months of sideways trading between $55,000 and $70,000, the world's largest cryptocurrency finally appeared ready to break through its previous all-time high of $73,737.
And then... nothing.
Like a mountaineer caught in an avalanche just feet from the summit, Bitcoin tumbled backward, dragged down by a broader tech selloff that saw the Nasdaq plunge more than 2%.
The catalyst? Disappointing earnings from tech giants Meta and Microsoft sent shockwaves through the market. Coinbase, crypto's largest publicly traded exchange, piled on with its own earnings miss after hours.
But there's more to this story than just another volatile day in crypto.
Behind the scenes, a much bigger drama is unfolding &ndash; one that could determine whether Bitcoin heads to $100,000 or tumbles back to $50,000.
<h3>The Trump Factor</h3>
It's no coincidence that Bitcoin's surge toward all-time highs comes as Donald Trump's poll numbers climb.
The former president has emerged as crypto's unlikely champion, promising to make America "the crypto capital of the planet" while vowing to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler on day one.
Most recently, Trump floated the idea of eliminating capital gains taxes on U.S.-made cryptocurrencies &ndash; a move that would revolutionize how Americans use digital assets.
"Bitcoin is money," Trump declared in a recent interview. "You shouldn't have to pay capital gains tax if you use it to buy a coffee."
<h3>But Don't Count Harris Out</h3>
While conventional wisdom suggests a Trump victory would send Bitcoin soaring, Vice President Harris might not be the crypto-skeptic many assume.
Money talks, and crypto companies are speaking loudly to both parties.
During this campaign cycle, cryptocurrency supporters have poured more than $200 million into the campaigns of both parties.
Take Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange. They've contributed over $93.5 million into politics this year &ndash; more than any other company in America. And they're not playing favorites.
The Harris campaign is now accepting Bitcoin donations, and crypto groups are spending big on Democratic Senate races.&nbsp;
In Michigan and Arizona alone, crypto backers have spent over $18 million supporting Democratic candidates.
It's a simple strategy: instead of betting everything on one party, crypto companies are building friends on both sides of the aisle.
The approach seems to be working.&nbsp;
Coinbase's Chief Financial Officer recently revealed that Harris already has guidelines drawn up to bring clarity to crypto regulations.&nbsp;
It's the kind of concrete plan that crypto investors have been begging for.
The shift makes political sense.&nbsp;
With nearly one in four American men invested in crypto and millions of first-time buyers anticipated to buy in the coming years, the Democratic party can't ignore cryptocurrency investors for long.
<h3>The Road Ahead</h3>
As we head into election week, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads.
A Trump victory would likely catapult prices through $75,000 &ndash; the recent high on Micro BTC futures.
With no technical resistance above the current all-time high, we'd be in uncharted territory &ndash; quite literally.
If that happens, buckle up.&nbsp;
The pattern is measuring up to $95,000, but markets have a funny way of gravitating toward round numbers. In this case, that's $100,000.
A Harris victory requires a different approach. Watch the technicals carefully.
A Harris win might trigger initial selling pressure, with $70,000 and $65,000 as critical support levels. A break below could send prices back to test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
But here's the twist &ndash; regardless of who wins, crypto's newfound political influence means more favorable regulation is likely coming.
The only real question is speed.
Think of it like a cross-country road trip.&nbsp;
With Trump, we're taking the interstate at 80 mph. With Harris, we're on the scenic route &ndash; but we're still heading to the same destination.
For traders, the message is clear: keep your eyes peeled on election results.
A Trump victory? Strap in and prepare for takeoff.
One thing's certain &ndash; with election day approaching and Bitcoin testing historical highs, the next few weeks promise to be anything but boring.

Bitcoin's Wild Ride: The Climb to $75K and What Comes Next

Let&rsquo;s talk about gold. I call it the once and future money.
The use of gold as money and gold standards in various forms existed from antiquity until gold backing broke down entirely in 1971. Still, central banks and finance ministries hold over 37,000 metric tonnes of gold in reserve. Why? The answer is that gold is still at the base of global monetary systems. It&rsquo;s simply the case that no government wants to admit this because the shortage of gold relative to bank notes would be exposed if they did.
<h2 class="subhead">The Math to Huge Gold Profits</h2>
Gold is coming to the fore of the monetary system again. Central banks are buying gold as fast as they can. Let&rsquo;s look at some pertinent data before turning to the key geo-economic trends that will drive the dollar price of gold much higher in the near future.
The dollar price of gold today is $2,750 per ounce (subject to the usual daily fluctuations). As recently as November 3, 2022, gold was $1,630 per ounce. That&rsquo;s a 69% gain in under two years. Gold was $1,375 per ounce in early June 2019. That means the dollar price of gold has doubled in just over five years.
Most of the gains over that period have occurred in the past year. Gold was still $1,845 per ounce in October 2023. Whether we consider a multi-year trend or a more recent trend, gold has moved steadily higher with dramatic momentum lately.
There&rsquo;s a simple but important bit of math behind these price moves that investors should understand. It is the key to making huge profits in gold in the months ahead.
Investors tend to focus on the dollar price of gold and to analyze the price in round numbers. That makes sense. If gold goes up $100 per ounce and you own 500 ounces, that&rsquo;s a $50,000 profit . Another $100 per ounce gain means another $50,000 profit. That&rsquo;s real money for you.
What investors may not realize at first is that each $100 gain (and $50,000 profit) is easier than the one before. That&rsquo;s because each gain is measured in constant $100 increments, but the measurement begins from a higher base. A constant dollar gain is a smaller percentage of an expanding base so it&rsquo;s easier to achieve in percentage terms.
For example, if the price goes from $2,500 to $2,600 per ounce, that&rsquo;s a 4.0% gain. But if the price goes from $2,900 to $3,000 per ounce (same $100 gain), that&rsquo;s a 3.5% gain. Obviously, a 3.5% gain is easier to pick up than a 4.0% gain, but it&rsquo;s the same $100 gain and $50,000 profit in your pocket.
This dynamic is even more dramatic if we look at $1,000 per ounce price increases. (That means $500,000 in profits if you own 500 ounces). When the price moves from $2,000 per ounce to $3,000 per ounce, that&rsquo;s a 50% gain. But when the price moves from $9,000 per ounce to $10,000 per ounce, that&rsquo;s only an 11.0% gain. Same $1,000 per ounce gain and same $500,000 in profit but a much easier hurdle to move 11% compared to 50%.
<h2 class="subhead">The Momentum Impacts Investor Psychology</h2>
The math is obvious, but the psychology is not. And investor psychology is the engine that will drive gold prices to much higher levels faster than most investors can imagine. The last time gold was taken seriously as a monetary asset was in the mid-1970s. The last time that retail investors had much appetite for gold investing was in the early 1980s. Gold hit $800 per ounce in January 1980. That was the all-time high at the time. Gold was flat to down from 1980 to 1999, hitting $250 per ounce in 1999 at the end of a 20-year bear market.
From there, gold reached a new high of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011, a 670% gain in 12 years. Then gold fell into a second bear market, falling $850 to $1,050 per ounce in December 2015. That was a 45% crash from the 2011 high.
If you treat the 1999 low of $250 per ounce as a baseline, the 2011-2015 crash was actually 51.5%: (850 / 1650 = 51.5%). That calculation is important. Jim Rogers, the greatest commodity trader of all time, told me that no commodity goes to the moon without a 50% correction along the way. Gold had its 50% correction in 2015. Now, it&rsquo;s off to the moon.
The point is that despite two bull markets (1971-1980 and 1999-2011) and two bear markets (1980-1999 and 2011-2015), gold investing never captured the popular imagination in the way that housing did in the early 2000s or that stocks have today.
Individual investors have been in and out of the market and investors from the early 2000s have done quite well. Hedge funds trade momentum but get out at the first speed bump. They don&rsquo;t think of gold any differently that they do soybeans or oil. It&rsquo;s just a trade. The institutional investor footprint in the gold market is almost non-existent. From an investment perspective, gold has been an orphan asset with a few supporters but not many.
That&rsquo;s all about to change radically. Here&rsquo;s why:
<h2 class="subhead">Central Bank Gold Holdings Surging</h2>
The first key to gold&rsquo;s coming surge is the role of central banks. Retail and institutional investors may not be that interested in gold, but central banks definitely are. In recent years, central bank holdings of gold have surged from 33,000 metric tonnes to over 36,000 metric tonnes, a 9.0% gain measured by weight.
This increase has been heavily concentrated in two countries &ndash; Russia and China. Russian gold reserves have risen from 600 metric tonnes in 2008 to 2,335 metric tonnes today, a gain of 1,735 metric tonnes or nearly 300% from the 2008 base. China also had about 600 metric tonnes in 2008 and today has 2,264 metric tonnes, a 275% gain. (There is good reason to conclude that China has undisclosed gold reserves which would make those total and percentage gains ever higher).
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/3rtQSvfchyapu577Yq3smU/674170d4c725e3b39787bc730a0a0206/rgf-img1-10-22-24.png" alt="image 1" width="540px" />
Source: TalkMarkets
The Big Ten holders of gold include the usual suspects &ndash; The U.S., Germany, Italy, France, Switzerland and Japan. But the list also includes some newcomers such as Russia, China and India.
Other important countries are vying for a place in the global gold club. In the second quarter of 2024 (most recent available data), Poland added 18.7 mt, India added 18.7 mt, Turkey added 14.7 mt, Uzbekistan added 7.5 mt and the Czech Republic added 5.89 mt.
Why the large gold holdings and why the rapid additions to gold reserves if gold is not a monetary asset? The question answers itself. Gold is a monetary asset.
Central bank net buying is equivalent to about 20% of annual gold mining output. That does not indicate a gold shortage, but it does put a firm floor under the dollar price of gold. That creates what we call an asymmetric trade. On the upside, the sky&rsquo;s the limit, but on the downside, the central banks have your back to some extent because they will definitely buy the dips to increase their gold hoards. That&rsquo;s the best type of trade to be in.
So, the stage is set. The simple math of easier percentage gains for constant dollar gains is the dynamic that can set off a buying frenzy and lead to super-spikes in the dollar price of gold. Central bank buying causes a relentless increase in the dollar price of gold and offers limited downside because they will buy the dips. All that is needed to set off the super-spike is an unexpected development that is not already priced in.
<h2 class="subhead">Enter The BRICS</h2>
Now we have it. The BRICS are meeting in Kazan, Russian Federation this week. The BRICS have a rotating presidency and this year Putin is president of the BRICS. The world is waiting for the announcement of a new BRICS currency. That may come in time, but not yet. The new currency may be ten years away.
What will happen instead is that Putin and the BRICS will announce a new blockchain-based digital ledger to record trade payments using existing currencies of the BRICS members. The significance of this system (tentatively named &ldquo;BRICS Clear&rdquo;) is that there are no dollars involved and the secure payment channels are relatively safe from U.S. and EU sanctions.
Russia will sell oil to China for rubles, Brazil will sell aircraft to China for reais, and India will sell technology to China for rupees and so on. (Alternatively, any BRICS member can elect to take the currency of any other BRICS member, all to be recorded on BRICS Clear).
Payments can be settled on a net basis instead of a gross basis. This means, for example, that Russia and China can trade goods and record payments. There will be &ldquo;due to&rdquo; and &ldquo;due from&rdquo; on the ledgers. Those can be netted out with only the net amount changing hands. And this does not have to be done in real time; it can be done monthly or quarterly. This greatly reduces the amount of payments and message traffic. The central bank or commercial banks in each country can provide payments to local sellers in local currency while recording a due from the BRICS Clear ledger on its books.
That system can work well, but it leaves two issues unresolved compared to a single currency system. The first is stability in exchange rates while balances are left unsettled. The second is the overaccumulation of a certain currency by one party that may have limited use for that currency.
<h2 class="subhead">Gold is the Answer</h2>
If you don&rsquo;t want to take exchange rate risk, you can take your counterparty currency balances and buy gold. And if you have too much of a certain currency standing on your accounts, you can reduce the balance by buying gold.
The implications of this have not yet sunk into market pricing. It&rsquo;s tantamount to an informal gold standard without fixed exchange rates. It relies on market forces (mostly denominated in U.S. dollars for now) and does not rely on huge hoards of freely convertible gold in central banks. Still, it works. It positions gold as an anchor in a new international monetary system without the strictures of the classical gold standard.
The picture is now complete. Gold is on an upward path driven by central bank buying. Gold is poised to go much higher because the BRICS will use physical gold as their anchor instead of U.S. dollars. And investor psychology will cause a super-spike once the big dollar gains become a daily occurrence. It&rsquo;s a powder keg and the BRICS have just struck a match. The smartest move for everyday investors is to buy gold now before the fun really begins.

Soaring resource costs&hellip; crashing stock prices&hellip; chaos on Wall Street&hellip;
Today&rsquo;s markets may seem more unpredictable than ever.
But drawing on his experience with the Central Intelligence Agency, Jim Rickards has developed a system for pinpointing the best times to enter and exit a trade.
It reveals the exact cross-section where you have enough good information to be smart AND still have time to effectively act.&nbsp;
And while the U.S. government has been using this system to predict geopolitical events for decades, Jim is the first to apply it to the investment markets.
He calls it the &ldquo;Kissinger Cross&rdquo; strategy&hellip; and it&rsquo;s only available in The Situation Report with Jim Rickards.
Jim and his team use it to detect big moves in gold, energy, currencies and commodities before they happen. Then it&rsquo;s just a matter of pairing that knowledge with the right trades &mdash; for chances to quickly multiply your money.
So don&rsquo;t be a victim of Wall Street&rsquo;s sudden ups and downs.
With The Situation Report with Jim Rickards, you can harness the power of the &ldquo;Kissinger Cross&rdquo; strategy &mdash; for a chance at big profits from gold, energy, currencies and commodities.

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Urgent Anytime Profit-Taking Alerts, Bi-Weekly SitRep Notes, Monthly Model Portfolio Updates

Harness trade signals from Jim’s proprietary “Kissinger Cross” strategy to profit from gold, energy, currencies and commodities during the market chaos.

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Gold Prices: Prepare for Blast Off

The semiconductor industry just experienced whiplash, and it's giving us a glimpse into the future of AI.
On Tuesday, ASML Holding (ASML), the Dutch company that makes the machines that make chips, accidentally leaked its earnings report. The news wasn't good.
ASML is a crucial player in the semiconductor world. They produce the complex machines that are essential for manufacturing the most advanced chips.
Their customers include semiconductor giants like Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, and Intel. Without ASML's machines, the AI revolution we're witnessing would not be possible.
So when ASML's new sales orders (or &ldquo;bookings&rdquo; as they&rsquo;re called in accounting) came in at half of what analysts expected, it sent shockwaves through the tech world. The company's stock plummeted 16%, dragging other chip stocks down with it.
Nvidia, the poster child of the AI boom, saw its shares tumble nearly 5%. AMD and Broadcom weren't spared either, dropping 5.3% and 3.5% respectively.
For a moment, it seemed like the AI boom might be losing steam. Was this the beginning of the end for the AI gold rush?
But just as the dust was settling, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) dropped a bombshell this morning&hellip;
<h2 class="subhead nbp">TSM&rsquo;s Blockbuster Quarter</h2>
TSM, the world's largest contract chipmaker, is a key supplier to AI giants like Nvidia. They're the ones who take ASML's machines and use them to produce the chips that power our AI future.
And TSM had a very different story to tell. They reported a blockbuster quarter, with profits surging 54%, blowing past expectations.
The market did a complete 180. TSM's stock soared, pushing its market cap over the trillion-dollar mark.
TSM's CEO, C.C. Wei, didn't mince words. "We believe the AI demand is real," he declared, "and it will continue for many years."
So, what's really going on here?
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Is AI Headed for a Slowdown or a Surge?</h2>
The truth is, the semiconductor industry has always been a rollercoaster. The industry has a long history of experiencing boom and bust cycles.
Building a new chip factory, or "fab" in industry parlance, can take years, sometimes almost a decade. By the time it's up and running, the market may have completely changed.
This mismatch between supply and demand leads to wild swings. One year there's a chip shortage, the next there's a glut.
We saw this play out during the pandemic. A surge in demand for electronics led to a chip shortage that crippled industries from automotive to gaming consoles.
But TSM's stellar results tell us something important: right now, demand for AI chips is red hot.
And it's not just a short-term trend. The tech giants are betting big on AI's long-term future.
Just this week, Amazon announced a massive investment in nuclear energy. They're leading a $500 million funding round for X-Energy Reactor, a company developing small modular nuclear reactors.
This isn't just about powering a few extra data centers. Amazon is planning for more than 5 gigawatts of power projects to come online by 2039.
To put that in perspective, that's enough energy to power roughly 4 million homes. And remember, this is just for Amazon's AI and cloud computing needs.
Google isn't far behind. They recently announced a nuclear energy deal of their own with Kairos Power, another developer of small modular reactors. The first of these reactors is expected to come online by 2030.
And let's not forget Microsoft. They recently agreed to revive the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant.
These tech behemoths aren't investing in nuclear energy for fun. They're preparing for a future where AI will require unprecedented amounts of power.
Consider this: a single rack of servers filled with advanced AI computing chips can demand over 100 kilowatts of power. That's more than 10 times what a typical server rack needs.
And we're not talking about a handful of these racks. We're talking about massive data centers filled with them, scattered across the globe.
These nuclear projects won't even come online for at least five years. That's a pretty clear signal that they expect AI demand to keep skyrocketing well into the next decade.
So while ASML's soft bookings raised some eyebrows, it's not necessarily a red flag for AI's future.
The tech giants are playing the long game. They're investing in infrastructure that will take years to build, positioning themselves for an AI-powered future.
Of course, we'll get an even clearer picture in the coming weeks. Intel and Nvidia are set to report their earnings soon, which could provide more insight into the state of AI chip demand.
For now, though, the outlook remains optimistic. The AI revolution isn't slowing down &ndash; it's just getting started.
The companies that can successfully navigate this transition &ndash; balancing the need for massive computing power with energy efficiency and sustainability &ndash; will likely be the titans of tomorrow's tech industry.
So while the headlines might swing from doom to boom and back again, keep your eyes on the long-term trend. The future of AI is bright, and it's powered by some serious innovation in both computing and energy.

Taiwan Semi's Trillion-Dollar Message: The AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

Election 2024

Last night, was the vice-presidential debate. The candidates had the opportunity to give their views to the American voters on important topics as we head toward Election Day. Below is a full analysis of the debate.
<h2 class="subhead">The Rundown</h2>
The obvious winner was JD Vance. The loser was Tim Walz, while the CBS moderators Norah O&rsquo;Donnell and Margaret Brennan also managed to embarrass themselves.
Vance appeared relaxed and comfortable in the limelight. Obviously, he had engaged in extensive debate preparation and was crammed full of relevant facts. But he presented himself in a dignified way and was able to make his technical points clearly and without jargon. He was a champion of &ldquo;common sense&rdquo; instead of reliance on so-called experts. This surely registered with a large part of the audience.
<h2 class="subhead">Walz Was Like a Nervous Cat</h2>
Walz was also well-prepped and well-rehearsed. But he was too rehearsed. His demeanor came across as some combination of an angry professor and a nervous cat on a high wire. He practically ignored Vance at times and kept talking about Trump, Trump, Trump in a highly disparaging way. His attacks on Trump recycled tired canards. The viewers were likely asking, &ldquo;Why are you attacking Trump instead of telling us what you would do if elected?&rdquo;
Regular readers know that I focus on body language as much as what the candidates are saying. There&rsquo;s a huge body of research that shows most viewers do the same even if their observations are subconscious. This X-factor was a big part of Vance&rsquo;s victory in the debate.
Walz seemed weak and nervous at key points, especially as the dialogue on climate change wore on. He was animated but in a bad way. He was scowling and yelling at the camera instead of speaking in a calm and composed manner. His eyes were bugging out and the veins in his neck were bulging, both signs of stress.
His face had a mean look even when he was not speaking. His eyes were shifty. Overall, his performance recalled the Howard Dean speech that ended with a prolonged scream (known ever since as the Dean Scream) on January 19, 2004, which finished Dean&rsquo;s political career. Walz&rsquo;s political career may also be about to end after his debate performance.
Walz had earlier lied about the fact that he was in China at the time of the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He wasn&rsquo;t there. When asked to explain, he offered a convoluted answer that involved more lies about the original lie. He was nervous throughout that non-answer. You could see on his face that he was still lying.
<h2 class="subhead">Vance Showed His Debating Chops</h2>
In contrast, Vance was friendly and composed but also highly disciplined. He looked right at the camera except when he confronted the moderators on some dirty tricks or when he looked right at Walz to make a point. Both moves were highly effective. Vance countered Walz&rsquo;s lines about Trump by draping Kamala Harris around his neck. Vance made the point that Harris has been vice president already for almost four years and could have fixed many of the policies that she now claims she wants to fix if elected.
The moderators were completely biased against Vance, but they embarrassed themselves in adopting that stance. The questions were clearly designed to hit Vance hard on climate change, abortion and the January 6, 2020, riots while giving Walz a softball to hit at the same time. This is where Vance showed his debating chops.
When confronted on climate change, Vance deftly pivoted to creating U.S. jobs and said that moving jobs from high-polluting countries like China back to the U.S. would reduce CO2 emissions since U.S. manufacturing is much cleaner than Chinese manufacturing.
When Vance was confronted about mass deportations of illegal aliens, he said that he had been to the border many times and the border patrol &ldquo;just want to do their jobs&rdquo; in accordance with U.S. law. He came across as sincere, not dogmatic. He also drove a wedge between Harris and Walz by saying that reduced illegal immigration would leave more jobs available for legal American citizens.
<h2 class="subhead">The Moderators Were Flustered</h2>
The highlight of the evening was when moderators Margaret Brennan and Norah O&rsquo;Donnell insisted on &ldquo;fact-checking&rdquo; Vance on climate change and other issues. Vance called out Margaret Brennan for doing this since CBS had agreed they would not engage in real time fact-checking and because they never fact-checked Walz on anything. He then buried her on substance. Total cojones.
Brennan then got so flustered she yelled, &ldquo;Your mikes are cut!&rdquo; as they shut down Vance&rsquo;s microphones. Vance kept talking and she yelled &ldquo;no one can hear you&rdquo; but I watched it live and I could hear Vance clearly picked up by Brennan&rsquo;s own mike. The CBS anchors looked like fools, and Vance came across as the hero. That moment alone will go down in TV debate history.
Vance was brilliant on substance. He said the solution to school shootings is to improve security at the schools rather than take away guns from law-abiding citizens. He said the Minnesota law allowing abortions in the ninth month and killing of children who survived an attempted abortion was &ldquo;fundamentally barbaric.&rdquo; Walz offered a lame defense of the Minnesota abortion law. Vance shot back, &ldquo;I asked for an answer, and you gave me a slogan.&rdquo;
Vance made it clear that a Trump administration would support fertility treatments, give pregnant women more options and let each state decide how to handle the issue. (The same evening of the debate Trump said he would veto a national abortion ban. That takes that issue off the table).
Vance explained that Trump&rsquo;s tariffs would end imports from countries that use &ldquo;slave labor.&rdquo; At this point, Walz was nonplussed and looked like a deer in the headlights.
Vance was brilliant on the failings of so-called experts. He said they were wrong about offshoring jobs, wrong about cheap imports and wrong about Big Pharma and Big Tech. Again, Vance urged &ldquo;common sense&rdquo; solutions instead of relying on experts. Most Americans certainly agree.
Also, Vance managed to work in the word &ldquo;weird&rdquo; twice in referring to Walz&rsquo;s policies. That was a nice turnaround from the early stage of the campaign when Walz tried to call Republicans weird.
Walz wasted his chance in the closing statement by using platitudes like &ldquo;joy&rdquo; and not saying much beyond &ldquo;vote for Kamala Harris.&rdquo; Vance made brilliant use of his time by discussing core issues like inflation, housing shortages, fentanyl imports and more and laying them all at the feet of Harris and Walz. That was much more in touch with everyday Americans.
One interesting sidelight is that both Vance and Walz were energetic and fully engaged. This has the unintended side effect of showing just how vapid Kamala Harris is since she could not have survived on that debate stage and still refuses to take reporters&rsquo; questions except with teleprompters in tightly controlled circumstances. Walz&rsquo;s level of engagement did Kamala no favors in comparison.
Bottom line: a convincing win for JD Vance. This should start to show up in polling results in the days ahead.

awn-hero-img-10-02-24 Brown wooden pulpit with microphone for speech or debate concept. Realistic 3d vector illustration set of wood lecture podium mockup for press conference. Presentation tribune or rostrum stand.

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A Vance Victory

Well, it finally happened!
The Fed pivoted on its interest rate policy last week with an aggressive 50-point rate cut.
Investors have been anticipating rate cuts for some time now, so this wasn't exactly a surprise.
Hopefully, you weren't caught off guard either, since it's something we've discussed plenty of times here.
Surprise or not, it appears that we&rsquo;re kicking this new chapter for the markets off with a bang. So there&rsquo;s no time to waste!
Let's check in on how stocks reacted to the news and review some of my favorite sectors for falling rates.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Market&rsquo;s Reaction to the Rate Cut</h2>
At last week&rsquo;s meeting, the Fed announced that it would cut interest rates by a whole 50 basis points.
Of course, investors saw this rate cut coming a mile away. Leading up to the meeting, the only question was whether it would be a 25-point or 50-point cut.
In the grand scheme of things, even the more aggressive outcome didn&rsquo;t seem to matter much. What&rsquo;s more important is that it marked the beginning of a new era for the markets.
Based on previous eras of easing rates, this trend will likely define the markets for the next few years.
In the short term, stocks have responded positively to the news. Both the S&amp;P and Dow hit all-time highs the day after the rate cut.
As we&rsquo;ve discussed before, lower rates make stocks in general more attractive as investors look outside of fixed-income assets for a yield.
So if you&rsquo;re invested in the steady, income-generating stocks that we specialize in here, there&rsquo;s a lot to look forward to in this new environment.
Here are a few specific areas that deserve your attention if you&rsquo;re looking to put extra cash to work.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Rates Go Down, These Stocks Go Up&nbsp;</h2>
First on my list are small-cap stocks. Small companies tend to carry a lot of debt to fund their growth, so lower rates make that debt less expensive.
As a group, small caps underperformed the broad market during the rate hike cycle. Now that rates are finally easing, I expect capital to rotate back into small caps.
Remember, we&rsquo;re in the very early stages of this next cycle. And once they get going, small caps can outperform their larger counterparts for years.
Although small-caps aren&rsquo;t exactly known for steady income, it&rsquo;s a good idea to get exposure to this area of the market.&nbsp;
Earlier this year, we added the small-cap company Cohen &amp; Steers Inc. (<a href="https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/CNS">CNS</a>) to our portfolio. The stock is up over 30% since I recommended it and could have much further to go.
If you&rsquo;re looking to get exposure to a basket of small caps rather than individual stocks, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF is another option to consider.
Precious metals like gold and silver also tend to do well as rates fall.
That&rsquo;s because lower rates cause the relative value of the U.S. dollar to decline, acting as a tailwind for gold and pushing prices higher.
The yellow metal took off after last week&rsquo;s rate cut, hitting a record high. And this is just a small preview of what&rsquo;s to come.
Gold miners from our portfolio like Newmont Corp. (<a href="https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/NEM">NEM</a>) and Barrick Gold Corp. (<a href="https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/GOLD">GOLD</a>) are natural beneficiaries of this trend.
And finally, utilities are likely to see renewed interest as rates fall. They may not be the most exciting investments out there, but that&rsquo;s actually part of the appeal.
As I mentioned earlier, lower yields on fixed-income investments like bonds will make stocks more competitive.&nbsp;
Utilities, which are known for their reliable income streams, are a great alternative for risk-averse investors looking for a safe yield.
Like small caps, utility companies also rely heavily on loans to finance their expansion. So lower borrowing costs provide another tailwind for utilities.&nbsp;
That&rsquo;s why I expect companies like NextEra Energy Inc. (<a href="https://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/NEE">NEE</a>) will do especially well over the next few years.
We may still be in the early stages of the rate-cut cycle. But I&rsquo;d encourage you to get exposure to these three areas now before they head even higher.

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The Fed Got Aggressive, Now It's Your Turn

After gathering critical information over the last few days from my intel sources, please read my analysis below, exclusively for you as a Strategic Intelligence reader.
We have just witnessed the second assassination attempt on the life of former president and current presidential candidate Donald J. Trump in the past two months.
The last attempted assassination of a president was the shooting of President Reagan on March 30, 1981, over 43 years ago. The last attempt before that was a shooting aimed at President Ford on September 22, 1975, almost 49 years ago. Of course, President John F. Kennedy was killed by an assassin on November 22, 1963, almost 61 years ago.
That makes two shootings and one assassination of U.S. presidents in the past 61 years prior to July 13, 2024. President Trump has been the victim of two assassination attempts in the past 65 days. Something is seriously wrong with that timeline.
One is reminded of the Ian Fleming quote from his James Bond novel Goldfinger: &ldquo;Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.&rdquo; I&rsquo;m willing to shorten Fleming&rsquo;s timeline in the case of Trump &ndash; Twice is enemy action.
<h2 class="subhead">Gross Negligence or Deep State Involvement?</h2>
At this point, it&rsquo;s fair to conclude that the U.S. Secret Service (USSS) is complicit in the Trump assassination attempts. The security failures at the Butler, PA rally site in July are well known at this point and do not have to be repeated at length. The USSS failed to secure the perimeter, failed to secure the shooter&rsquo;s rooftop location within 150 yards of Trump&rsquo;s podium with a clear line of sight, did not notice that the shooter was using a range finder and a drone to survey the area, and that the shooter was clearly visible on his rooftop position with a rifle.
Attendees at the rally tried to warn the local police and USSS. The local police tried to intervene but fell off the roof ledge when the shooter aimed at them. The USSS ignored the warnings entirely. Then the shooting began.
That kind of gross negligence is tantamount to saying, &ldquo;Fire away, we won&rsquo;t stop you&rdquo; to the thousands of violent and mentally disturbed Trump haters all over the country. The FBI cover-up began almost immediately when the shooter&rsquo;s body was cremated and the rooftop shooting location was scrubbed clean before intensive forensics could be concluded.
The gross negligence continued at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida where the second attempted assassination took place. The golf course itself was not secured. The alleged shooter, Ryan Routh, had set up a sniper&rsquo;s nest in some bushes near the green on the 6th hole. Trump was playing on the fairway of the 5th hole when Routh (according to witnesses) was confronted by the USSS who were patrolling one hole ahead of Trump. Routh would have had a clear line of sight to shoot Trump at about 230 yards on the 5th green, 50 yards on the 6th green, and 135 yards on the 7th green.
According to witnesses and the criminal complaint, Routh was using an SKS-type 7.62x39 caliber long-barreled rifle with a scope. I&rsquo;ve fired similar weapons and consistently hit the target at 100 yards with no scope and I&rsquo;m not a highly trained marksman. There would have been no difficulty hitting Trump at the distances noted above using a scope.
It&rsquo;s interesting that the rifle is Russian-designed and may have been manufactured in Russia. Was this part of a planned effort to somehow &ldquo;blame Russia&rdquo; or show a &ldquo;Russian connection&rdquo; once Trump was dead? In any case, Trump was minutes away from being killed. Again, the USSS performance was so incompetent that they can fairly be considered accomplices to the attempted assassination even if they did not pull the trigger.
We know far more about Routh than we do about the Butler, PA shooter Thomas Crooks. The FBI is covering up any information about Crooks and his communications.They can&rsquo;t do that in the case of Routh because he had an extensive online and media presence from 2021 until today.
<h2 class="subhead">Who is Ryan Routh?</h2>
Routh&rsquo;s life has been one of continual failure. He was originally from Greensboro, North Carolina. He was a failed builder, failed husband, and his son claims he had no idea his father was potentially violent or even owned a gun. The son said Routh &ldquo;hates Trump&rdquo; and he agrees and added that &ldquo;no rational person&rdquo; could think otherwise.
In 2002, Routh was convicted of &ldquo;possessing a weapon of mass destruction&rdquo; (a fully automatic machine gun). He was arrested after barricading himself in a shack. He has eight other arrests on his police record.
Routh went to Ukraine in 2022 to volunteer to fight on the Ukrainian side against Russia. He was rejected because of his age (he&rsquo;s 58 years old) and complete lack of military experience or training. Routh tweeted extensively about these efforts and gave interviews to the New York Times and many other media outlets.
Undeterred by the rejection, Routh remained in Kyiv and later Lviv in western Ukraine where he organized a group to recruit foreign fighters to come to Ukraine and fight as mercenaries alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces. His ideas were ridiculous, including attempts to recruit 10,000 Afghani fighters following Biden&rsquo;s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. He got no more than a handful of interested parties. The International Legion (a true mercenary group with seasoned armed fighters) considered Routh unstable and kept their distance.
Routh was photographed smiling with members of the Azov Battalion in Ukraine, a self-declared neo-Nazi fighting unit that proudly displays insignia used by the Nazi Waffen SS in World War II. Routh&rsquo;s neo-Nazi connections and failure as a Ukrainian recruiter did not stop western media from interviewing him. He was held up as an exemplar of U.S. support for Ukraine and the need to do everything possible to help the corrupt Zelensky regime. Routh was perfectly in sync with the Biden-Harris propaganda machine generating support for neo-Nazis in Ukraine even though he was regarded by those who knew him as mentally unstable.
There&rsquo;s a lot of information available about Routh&rsquo;s activities in Ukraine, but there&rsquo;s no better single example than a ten-minute interview he gave to Ukrainian TV. You can view the entire interview <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZKRZcsxHfQ.">here.</a>
The first thing you may notice in this video is that Routh has died his hair blue and yellow, the colors of the Ukrainian flag. It only takes a minute of viewing to see that Routh is mentally unstable. But his mental illness is not the kind of dementia or cognitive decline we&rsquo;ve been seeing from Joe Biden for the past five years.
Routh is not stupid and speaks clearly and grammatically. Instead, the mental illness takes the form of delusional thinking. He talks about the importance of peace, love and understanding among people and then says the way to achieve peace is to take up arms and kill Russians. His call for mercenaries from around the world is completely detached from the reality of how mercenary armies actually work.
The scariest part of Routh&rsquo;s interview is that he precisely mimics the talking points you hear every day from MSNBC and CNN. Routh says that Trump is an existential threat to humanity and a threat to democracy. He says that Trump must be stopped at all costs. He says that Trump is an enemy of peace and freedom. Sound familiar? It should. These are exactly the lies and propaganda that corporate media spew every day and have done for the past nine years.
<h2 class="subhead">Corporate Progaganda Is Dangerous</h2>
Here's the problem. MSNBC and CNN and the rest of corporate media put out these lies about Trump as a form of propaganda. The lies are aimed at a target audience of Trump haters and liberal lightweights. Routh was the target audience. Corporate media are too cowardly to take direct action against Trump but by putting out propaganda, they hope to trigger those who are prone to such action.
The triggering propaganda was not limited to the media. Kamala Harris said of Trump, &ldquo;Does one of us have to come out alive. Ha, ha, ha, ha!&rdquo; Joe Biden said, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s time to put Trump in a bullseye.&rdquo; Tim Walz&rsquo;s wife Gwen Walz said, &ldquo;Buh-bye, Donald Trump.&rdquo; Democratic member of Congress Dan Goldman said about Trump, &ldquo;He is destructive to our democracy and &hellip; he has to be eliminated.&rdquo; I could offer 100 similar quotes, but you get the idea. The media class and the political class are calling for Trump to be killed. It&rsquo;s just a matter of triggering someone to do it.
In Routh&rsquo;s case, he was completely triggered. He swallowed the propaganda whole. Then he picked up his rifle. Just as the USSS are responsible for letting these assassinations happen, corporate media and the Democrats are responsible for triggering unstable individuals to conduct the assassination attempts. It&rsquo;s not a stretch to say the USSS, corporate media and Democrats are all out to kill Trump. They simply rely on mentally ill zealots to do their wet work.
<h2 class="subhead">Was Routh Bankrolled?</h2>
As is usually the case following events of this type, we have more questions than answers. Still, the questions themselves shine a light on the dark forces at work.
Routh told the court on Monday that he had no material financial assets and owned no property. The court has appointed a public defender to represent Routh. If he has no assets, how was Routh able to afford his move to Hawaii? His travels to Ukraine? How did he finance his recruiting effort while in Ukraine? Where did he get the rifle? How could he afford to travel to Florida to carry out the assassination plan? It seems clear that Routh has a hidden source of financial support. The CIA typically deals in cash while running covert operations. Was Routh a CIA asset turned loose on a rogue mission with a predictable outcome?
I worked for the CIA for 10 years in various capacities including special operations. Ukraine has been a CIA outpost since 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union and the creation of the Russian Federation. Ukraine is riddled with CIA operatives, bioweapons labs and forward deployed assets intended to destabilize Russia. It&rsquo;s impossible that a high-profile American like Routh could run around Ukraine recruiting mercenaries without coming to the attention of CIA and coming in direct contact with CIA assets.
This does not prove that Routh was working for the CIA, but it strongly suggests that Routh may have been financed and otherwise assisted by CIA to carry out his assassination plan. The fact that Routh was using a Russian-designed rifle (which would have been plentiful in Ukraine as Cold War surplus) is another tell. The parallels with Lee Harvey Oswald who was a U.S. defector to the Soviet Union who later returned to the U.S. and had contacts with anti-Castro Cubans working for the CIA are too obvious to ignore.
As for Trump&rsquo;s so-called protection, why was the golf course not secure? How did Routh set-up a sniper&rsquo;s nest on the 6th hole of the course without being detected until minutes before Trump came into sight? Routh stayed in his sniper&rsquo;s nest for over twelve hours before he was confronted. Why was that area not swept several times in the period? How did Routh even know Trump would be playing golf there that day without a leak from Trump&rsquo;s security detail?
These and many other questions need to be answered quickly before the cover-up goes much further. The FBI official in charge of the Florida assassination attempt investigation is Jeffrey Veltri, a notorious Trump-hater who was ordered by the FBI Director to scrub his social media accounts of anti-Trump posts.
One bit of good news is that Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida will be conducting his own state-level investigation with full subpoena power and expert forensics. DeSantis points out that the FBI, USSS and Department of Justice are all conflicted from conducting an independent inquiry since Trump is their political opponent and they work for the Biden-Harris regime. Still, there&rsquo;s much we don&rsquo;t know.
Here's what we do know: The corporate media, Democrat politicians, the USSS and other branches of the Deep State are largely to blame for these two assassination attempts because of their constantly repeated lies about Trump&rsquo;s character, political platform and his ostensible &ldquo;threat to democracy.&rdquo; Calling Trump &ldquo;Hitler&rdquo; (as the media continually do) offers deranged individuals like Routh a license to kill. In Routh&rsquo;s case he apparently took up the challenge and almost succeeded.
Saying the assassination attempt failed is not a source of comfort. One is reminded of the IRA&rsquo;s near assassination of Margaret Thatcher in the Brighton Grand Hotel bombing in 1984. After the bombing, the IRA boasted to Thatcher: &ldquo;We have only to be lucky once, you will have to be lucky always.&rdquo; In other words, the assassination attempts will keep coming.

Trump Assassination Attempt Part 2

Every new technology brings a rush of excitement and investment. It's a tale as old as innovation itself.
In the 1800s, railroad fever gripped America.&nbsp;
Investors couldn't throw money at tracks and locomotives fast enough.&nbsp;
Fast forward to the late 1990s, and it was all about the internet.&nbsp;
Any company with a ".com" in its name could see its stock price skyrocket overnight.
Now, it's AI's turn in the spotlight.
Over the past two years, artificial intelligence has become the hottest investment theme on Wall Street.
But recently, the market's love affair with AI has hit a speed bump.
Nvidia, the poster child of the AI revolution, has seen its stock tumble 16.5% since announcing earnings last week. This is the same Nvidia that saw its stock price triple in 2023, mind you.
Investors are getting antsy.&nbsp;
They're worried that tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have been pouring money into AI development and Nvidia servers with little to show for it.
Some are even whispering the dreaded B-word: Bubble.
It's an easy conclusion to jump to. After all, we've seen this movie before, right? The hype cycle kicks in, valuations go through the roof, and then... pop!
But hold your horses, folks. The data tells a different story.
<h3>AI is Taking Over</h3>
Unlike other technologies, AI is unique.&nbsp;
It's not just a tool &ndash; it's a tool that's building better tools.
Take Amazon, for example. Their AI assistant, Amazon Q, isn't just a fancy chatbot.&nbsp;
It's a workforce multiplier.
According to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon Q has saved the company a mind-boggling 4,500 developer-years of work.
That's not a typo. 4,500 years.
In cold, hard cash, that translates to $260 million in annualized efficiency gains.
But here's the kicker &ndash; Amazon isn't even using AI to its full potential yet.&nbsp;
They've only upgraded 50% of their production Java systems in six months. Imagine the savings when they hit 100%.
And Amazon isn't alone in embracing AI.
A recent Bloomberg Intelligence survey found that 66% of companies are working on deploying generative AI copilots.&nbsp;
That's double the number from just seven months ago.
The adoption is happening across the board.&nbsp;
From chatbots handling customer service to AI assistants helping with code transformations, the technology is seeping into every corner of the corporate world.
The truth is, AI is probably more prevalent in your workplace than you realize.
That colleague who suddenly got super efficient?&nbsp;
They might be secretly using ChatGPT to respond to emails.
That mind-blowing presentation?&nbsp;
The AI tool Midjourney might have lent a hand with the visuals.
And it's not just giant enterprises.&nbsp;
Small businesses are getting in on the action too.&nbsp;
From AI-powered inventory management to personalized marketing campaigns, the technology is leveling the playing field.
But here's the thing &ndash; we're just getting started.
<h3>The Real Show is About to Begin</h3>
Next month, Apple is set to roll out its Apple Intelligence software.&nbsp;
This move will put AI in the hands of billions, helping people lead more productive and fulfilling lives.
Apple Intelligence isn't just another product launch.&nbsp;
It's a signal that AI has arrived, and it can no longer be ignored.&nbsp;
When Apple gets involved, you know the technology has hit the mainstream.
We're still in the early days of the AI revolution.&nbsp;
If we were to draw a parallel to the internet boom, we'd be somewhere around 1994 or 1996.
Remember, Amazon was just a twinkle in Jeff Bezos' eye back then. Google didn't exist. Facebook was still a decade away. The real game-changers were yet to come.
So, is anyone even using AI?
The answer is a resounding yes.&nbsp;
And soon, everyone will be.
What we're seeing now is just the prequel.&nbsp;
The real show is about to begin.
Buckle up, folks.&nbsp;
The AI revolution isn't a bubble &ndash; it's barely even started.

Is AI In Bubble Territory?

As I&rsquo;m sure you&rsquo;re aware, we&rsquo;re in the midst of another presidential election campaign. Plus, House and Senate races, and whatever else is happening in your neck of the woods. You either follow the news or you don&rsquo;t, maybe because you&rsquo;re sick of it all. But wherever you&rsquo;re coming from, I promise&hellip;
We will not discuss current politics today. Instead, we&rsquo;ll take a well-deserved break from the political discourse on this long holiday weekend and discuss geology and copper, meaning the metal, and why it&rsquo;s critical to your investment future.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7IdhyeUgL6DrAUnuhSfhSZ/d9ddc58a2ec399be01ebf9c022b6591e/awn-img1-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 1" width="540px" />
Look ahead five, 10, 15 and more years, and copper is worth your time to understand. It&rsquo;s also worth your investment dollars. That is, over almost any frame of reference &mdash; near-term, intermediate or long-term &mdash; you can preserve wealth with copper, which offers limited downside for reasons I&rsquo;ll explain in a moment. And you can grow your nest egg with copper too, again for reasons that I&rsquo;ll lay out anon.
But first, let&rsquo;s take a brief detour to Arizona.
<h2 class="subhead">The &ldquo;Copper State&rdquo;</h2>
Over the past couple of years, I&rsquo;ve made numerous trips to Arizona, often as not to check out copper development projects, copper mines and old copper-mining history. In fact, I was recently out there again, in mid-August with temps well above 100 degrees. Yes, that&rsquo;s hot, despite how people will tell you, &ldquo;Oh, it&rsquo;s just dry heat.&rdquo; Yeah, right.
Dry or not, it&rsquo;s a freaking furnace outside in the mid-summer, in southern Arizona. Still, there I was, in the field, shod in protective boots (note: carbon-fiber toes are far more comfortable than steel) and wearing long trousers, a long-sleeved shirt, reflective vest and a hard hat. I hiked through cactus, sagebrush and mesquite, walked along roadcuts and railbeds, climbed around outcrops, tried to avoid rattlesnakes, kicked rocks or whacked them with a hammer, and talked about geology with several superb copper guys from both industry and academe.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/4s9MKCTqdOEAqLmNSxnHbR/e666d0c723463fb233d7606727b47f49/awn-img2-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 2" width="540px" />
On the hunt for Arizona copper. BWK photo.
And do you know what? It&rsquo;s just so much fun; hey, I love it!
The point is, Arizona is called the &ldquo;copper state,&rdquo; and for a good reason: the southern half is underlain by a complex geological assemblage of really old, pretty old, and kind of old rocks. These are all cut by fractures and faults, moved about by folding and other tectonic processes and intruded by super-hot magmas and other deep-earth systems that, over long stretches of geologic time, emplaced a lot of copper into the rocks, along with much else in the way of minerals and metals.
Just to give you a feel for Arizona&rsquo;s copper systems, here's a map that identifies many past and present mine developments for the metal.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/350GEr5TNkcwLxMlH3wMHa/34037f9d850ade1bd944cd30f3127b48/awn-img3-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 3" width="540px" />
Courtesy University of Arizona.
Note that there are no red &ldquo;copper&rdquo; dots in the north, in the Colorado Plateau region. This is an area of massive uplifts, which led to the Colorado River carving the Grand Canyon. And to the extent that there&rsquo;s copper in the deep rocks, it has not (yet) been exposed by erosion.
To be perfectly accurate, the lack of copper plays up north doesn&rsquo;t mean that there&rsquo;s no copper; in fact, the metal and its minerals are present in places in northern Arizona, but these are mostly smallish deposits of scientific and historical interest, and not large mineral systems and developments. Get down into the basement rock, and who knows what you&rsquo;ll find.
Also to be perfectly accurate, this southern Arizona copper belt is part of a much larger set of geologic trends of continental scale, as you can see in this map.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1R3XFi45FFZklQ6IojuNkM/4ec37e5009e529d30799ff2fb6bf09f4/awn-img4-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 4" width="540px" />
Courtesy University of Arizona.
Geologically, there&rsquo;s much going on in terms of mineralization in what looks like an arc from northern Mexico, in Sonora state, through southern Arizona, wrapping up through California and Nevada, and then into Idaho and Montana. And this doesn&rsquo;t even begin to describe the known, very impressive, mineral deposits and future potential in Utah, Colorado and more.
The point of all this is to focus on how the copper belt of southern Arizona is a region with significant uplift, plus extensive erosion over geologic time. In essence, this brought many formerly deeply buried copper deposits to the surface; or at least, in our time, close enough to prospect and discover.
So, copper is important to Arizona. And if you know a bit more about the place, you might recall the other &ldquo;Cs&rdquo; of the state, aside from its red metal output. That is, Arizona is well known for cattle, cotton, citrus and its wonderful climate in winter, far from the cold, wet, miserable weather back East.
<h2 class="subhead">The State That Almost Wasn&rsquo;t</h2>
Pertinent to that last point, in the 1800s Arizona&rsquo;s dry climate worked against it in terms of what people back East thought. The common view was that Arizona was a vast expanse of austere, desolate Western desert, essentially a long stretch of nothing in particular, except useless geography to cross over on the way to California.
To be fair to people of that era, they worked with limited knowledge; and actually, there were understandable reasons for their negative views of Arizona. As in yes, Arizona was definitely dry, and that certainly was the case in the long-ago days before modern water projects and massive irrigation. At best, back then, Arizona offered a physically challenging frontier life and lifestyle, including great danger from the tough-as-nails Apache who roamed the land.
Indeed, for these reasons and through most of the 1800s, Arizona was considered unfit to be admitted as a formal U.S. state. But time marches onward, and during the late 19th century the American West developed in its own way. And for many decades Arizona held the legal status of an American territory, little more than a national backwater. Except&hellip; the place had a lot of mineral wealth.
In the 1850s through about 1890s, the U.S. Army went about its business out West, often as not fighting the aforementioned Apache in Arizona. Along the way, observant soldiers noticed interesting, shiny minerals along the trails and rock faces. In many instances, the Army guys marked the locations on maps and brought specimens back to their camps and forts.
To make a long story short, more than a few of these Apache-fighting soldiers transformed into the original prospectors of the late 1800s who, either on their own or with the help of better geologic talent, found immense scales of valuable minerals outcropping across southern Arizona. One of the original, and in retrospect legendary, mineral discoveries was at a place called Bisbee, in the southeast part of the state.
<img src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/1S75FhQt0FNs6foN0DxXPv/f9c6575e21d3511877b6c34fd3fed76a/awn-img5-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 5" width="540px" />
Geologic cross-section through Bisbee, Arizona copper deposits.
Around and beneath Bisbee is a Jurassic-age assemblage of copper mineralization, along with silver, gold and much else. The mineralization was high grade and extensive. All this, and many mineral specimens were stunningly beautiful, which led Arizona promoters to ship them across the U.S., and indeed the world. In this regard, Bisbee minerals played up the importance and wealth of Arizona.
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7ElKjj9xvmjg1NNwyVN2je/5127ca75036a8df67dc95a3611090a9d/awn-img6-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 6" width="540px" />
Bisbee malachite, azurite, cuprite.
Almost immediately, museums and collectors across America and the world began to acquire Bisbee specimens. Today, you&rsquo;ll find Bisbee mineral examples in museums from Tokyo to St. Petersburg, and all across the U.S. from San Diego to the Smithsonian Institution.
Another way of saying it is that, from a promoter&rsquo;s standpoint, Arizona might be dry, and much of the landscape may look like a desert, but the place was also a gigantic source of primary wealth, per its mineral endowment. And in no small part, this aggressive promotion of Arizona as a mineral district is what led to the territory becoming a U.S. state on Feb. 12, 1912.
The rest is history.
<h2 class="subhead">Copper, Then and Today</h2>
Of course, preceding the massive discoveries in Arizona, America already had a copper industry. It kicked into gear in the 1840s based on excellent ore deposits in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Still, Michigan or no, America&rsquo;s growing national economy required more and more of the red metal. And based on new discoveries out West, certainly with that of Bisbee in the 1880s and then spreading across other finds in the Arizona territory, copper mining grew in prolific fashion and became a key part of the U.S. national scale of industry.
Arizona&rsquo;s copper mines, mills and smelters employed tens of thousands, and fed copper into the U.S. economy of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Along the way, innumerable people accumulated (and some lost) immense fortunes.
Again, to make the point, America and the world needed copper during the country&rsquo;s massive, initial period of industrialization, as towns and cities grew along with the population and trends towards urbanization. More and more, and affecting pretty much everyone, people needed copper for everything from household electric wire to telephones, house keys, doorknobs, plumbing and bathroom fixtures, and much else.
American industry also evolved and developed in ways that would have been impossible absent access to large amounts of relatively affordable copper. Consider obvious examples like the electric power industry, which requires copper at every stage from steam turbines to dynamos and generators, as well as wires and transformers. You&rsquo;ll find copper everywhere along the way, from the power plant to the utility hookup and then all through the house or other buildings.
Just imagine the growing amounts of copper that went into everything from streetcar lines to steel mills; and if that&rsquo;s not enough, consider the buildout of a national-scale telephone system.
Think of the iconic American business names that never could have worked out absent copper, used in a myriad of products: companies like General Electric and Westinghouse, or AT&amp;T, RCA, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, and countless more. Business histories are filled with accounts of CEOs and boards of directors plotting their companies&rsquo; fate based on the price of copper.
Really, when you open it all up, almost everything and every product uses copper. It&rsquo;s as close as the wire in your house or place of work. Or the metal inside cars, trucks, trains, airplanes, ships, telephones, refrigerators, heating systems, air conditioning, building elevators, and on and on. Copper conducts the electricity that pumps water to your house or workplace, and then pumps the sewage away. It&rsquo;s all based on copper; the metal is everywhere.
Along these last lines, and per the old saying, &ldquo;water is life.&rdquo; But take that a step further, to point out that electricity is quality of life; and copper is essential to conducting that electricity.
<h2 class="subhead">What&rsquo;s Happening with Copper?</h2>
For all its importance to industry, however, over time copper has long been a cyclical business marked by booms and busts. Here&rsquo;s a generalized view that goes back over a century, showing prices at the time (yellow line), as well as adjusted for inflation (blue line).
<img class="aligncenter" src="https://images.ctfassets.net/vha3zb1lo47k/7H0UTmkO7T81OlfV6Sdaa8/138838aa2650b2c93e9a90caabcfa63f/awn-img7-08-31-24.jpeg" alt="image 7" width="540px" />
The takeaway here is to show how copper did well in the years post World War II, and during the Asia buildout in the 1970s-80s. Plus, look at how well copper performed during China&rsquo;s expansion in the early 2000s.
What the chart doesn&rsquo;t show, though, is baked-in future demand growth for copper, and inevitable shortages and price increases for the metal, all due to several reasons:
<ul>
<li>The world is already in the midst of a general, copper-based electric power grid buildout from what we can just label as &ldquo;normal&rdquo; growth, as literally billions of people in the developing world move towards a better lifestyle.</li>
<li>There&rsquo;s a companion, copper-based grid rebuild in the developed world, certainly here in the U.S. where the country requires a dramatic reboot of the overall power complex, much of which goes back to the 1930s.</li>
<li>We are fast moving towards a dramatic new increase in copper demand, in the U.S. and globally, to move electricity for applications that didn&rsquo;t exist just a few years ago. In particular, this comes from demand growth in the arenas of artificial intelligence (AI), along with the ongoing move to power more and more new cars with electricity versus petroleum-based fuel.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
Of course, there&rsquo;s much more to the copper growth story, but for reasons of space, we&rsquo;ll leave it at that. Meanwhile, it&rsquo;s fair to say that the mining industry has lagged for many years in terms of exploration, discovery and investment in new copper mine projects. And this affects not just current supply, but future output. In other words, we&rsquo;re staring down the barrel of strong worldwide growth in copper demand, but limited supplies.
Part of the reason for the lack of past investment was economics, in terms of weak or unsteady copper prices and unfavorable economics to finance new mines. Another angle has been the evolution of resource nationalism across the world, namely the increasing difficulty to obtain exploration concessions, social licenses, and permits to go out and explore. This issue is present in most nations across the globe. And to sum up, at root it&rsquo;s just not very easy to explore, develop and operate in many regions and jurisdictions. (Long story.)
<h2 class="subhead">Back to the Future&hellip; of Copper</h2>
All of which brings us back to the beginning, and why copper is a solid investment idea now, and for many years to come. The downside is limited, in the sense that prices are firm as we look to enter a time of higher demand and weaker supplies from mines and mills. And the upside is apparent in a world where copper prices have been solid and are clearly getting stronger. It means that good, well-run companies will make money, impress Wall Street, and maintain dividends.
At this point, I must give a shout-out to one of the world&rsquo;s great copper mining companies, Freeport McMoRan (FCX). Currently, shares trade in the $43-range, giving the company a market cap of over $62 billion. And it pays a dividend, about 1.8%.
Of interest, and pertinent to this article, Freeport is a new version of the old Phelps Dodge Company, which for many decades owned and operated a series of mines, now closed, at the aforementioned Bisbee site, in Arizona. Of course, Freeport has expanded over the decades. It runs mines in Arizona, elsewhere in the U.S., and overseas in Peru, Chile and Indonesia. The company produces copper, gold, silver and a host of other minerals and metals. And in a rising market for these metals, Freeport looks good in the years ahead.
Another company that works in the copper space is Rio Tinto (RIO), with shares trading now at about $62 and a market cap over $100 billion. Rio pays a dividend of over 6.5% yield, reflecting how it generates cash in this environment.
Rio operates in the U.S. and Canada, including owning the massive copper project at Bingham Canyon, Utah, as well as holding a solid interest in one of the best undeveloped copper plays in North America, at a site called Casino, in the Yukon where Rio works with Western Copper &amp; Gold (WRN).
Rio is far more than copper, though. It mines iron ore in Australia, smelts aluminum in Canada, extracts zirconium in South Africa, and much else. The company has deep technical expertise in a variety of geological and engineering settings, and again is looking forward to meeting world needs in the period of strong demand that is unfolding.
I should note that although I love these companies as good investment opportunities, they won&rsquo;t be tracked as part of the official portfolio here at Strategic Intelligence. But I do follow them and I&rsquo;m always looking for news. If you buy in, be sure to use limit orders, look for down days in the markets, and never chase momentum.
And with all that, I&rsquo;ll end here and thank you for subscribing and reading.

sjn-hero-img-08-28-24 Man's hand holding a piece of copper to examine it for industrial use

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