Gold’s Past and Future

2025 was a special year for gold as prices surged with gains over 60%.

There are important developments almost daily that will sustain the gold bull market for years to come. Let’s first look briefly at the gold price action in 2025 and then turn to these breaking developments.

At the beginning of 2025, gold stood at around the $2,600 level and moved steadily higher before surging toward the end of August to reach its all-time highs closing out the year. Of course, this bull market is far from over and material gains in the near future should be expected.

There were three main drivers of the gold price this past year.

Central banks remain net buyers of gold as they have been since 2010. This puts an informal floor under the price of gold while still allowing unlimited upside. Also, geopolitical risks continued in the War in Ukraine and in Venezuela that drove investors to buy gold as a safe haven allocation to their portfolios. Finally, monetary policy may also be driving the upswing in gold prices this year, with investors more bullish after three consecutive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. I expect another cut in January and more easing of monetary policy as President Trump nominates a new Fed Chair to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026.

New Developments Going Into 2026

I made my prediction in the latest Strategic Intelligence issue that I expect gold to reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026. But it’s entirely reasonable to suggest gold could reach $10,000 per ounce. What few investors may realize is that each $1,000 increase in the price of gold is easier than the one before. The price gain is the same at each milestone, but the percentage increase is smaller because each increase is working from a higher base. Going from $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce is a 25% gain. But going from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. This is why the push to $10,000 per ounce will go slowly at first and then quickly.

Underreported Events to Consider

That much is widely known. What is less well known is series of underreported events that will turbocharge the price gains ahead going into 2026. Here is a summary of those events:

• Central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold as they have been since 2010. This keeps a floor under the gold price as it keeps surging to all-time highs.
• Mining output has been flat for last six years. This does not mean “peak gold”, but it shows that gold is getting harder to find and more expensive to mine. Supply constraints + expanding demand = higher prices.
• The copper-to-gold price ratio is at an all-time low. This speaks to the relative role of industrial metals versus precious metals. The gold price can rise in recessionary scenarios and depressions. Gains are not limited to periods of inflation and hot economies.
• Russia has demonstrated that it can survive Western dollar-based financial sanctions by holding over 25% of its reserves in physical gold. That’s a lesson the world and especially the BRICS are internalizing.
• Digitally tokenized gold has become a huge new source of demand. Tether is leading the way with its XAUt token that has a current market cap (tied to the price of gold) of $2.2 billion. This means Tether is the ultimate buy-and-hold gold investor and their gold is effectively off the market.
• Italy has recently taken steps to asset that Italian gold (2,452 metric tonnes; the third largest gold reserve in the world after the U.S. and Germany) belongs to the Italian people and not to the Bank of Italy. That dispute has cooled down, but its mere existence shows that a global struggle for possession of physical gold is underway.
• Television and media personality Tucker Carlson has launched an online gold dealing operation. That’s only one among many online dealers, but it shows that gold ownership is reaching a wider audience and we are getting closer to the retail frenzy stage of price appreciation.
• The U.S. Treasury is giving serious consideration to revaluing its gold reserves by causing the Federal Reserve to restate the value of its gold certificate given when the Treasury took the Fed’s gold in 1934. The current value of the certificate is $42.22 per ounce. If revalued to $4,200 per ounce, this would not change the world price of gold (it’s just an accounting entry), but it would add about $1 trillion to the Treasury’s account at the Fed and it would show that the U.S. respects gold as a legitimate monetary asset.

Other material developments in the gold markets are occurring almost daily. We expect this to continue into 2026 and beyond.

Remember - If you have not invested in gold yet or if your allocation is small, it’s not too late to invest. The biggest gains are still ahead and will happen sooner than later. The time to invest is now.

Happy New Year. I wish you a prosperous 2026.