The Birthplace of the Next Bull Run

Markets in late 2025 look manic but feel strangely stable… as if euphoria itself had become the new equilibrium.

AI valuations are at dizzying heights, the Nasdaq trades as if gravity were optional, and yet, beneath the froth, there’s a growing sense that the next great bull run may still lie ahead.

Yes, this is an AI bubble.

Every corporate deck now features a slide on “transformative intelligence,” and private valuations make 1999 look conservative.

But this isn’t 1999.

Back then, the leaders were ideas without income… websites without revenue, dreams without data centers.

This time is different. Beneath the speculative excess, real cash flow and real infrastructure are taking shape. The price action screams euphoria, but the macro backdrop tells a subtler story that could set the stage for an explosive 2026.

The Resilience Paradox

Start with the debt picture. The U.S. now carries more than $38 trillion in gross national debt, a sum that should, in theory, crush risk appetite and confidence.

Yet the opposite has happened, and the market has learned to live with excess. The 10-year yield still hovers near 4.5%, a level that signals neither panic nor surrender, just adaptation.

Global capital keeps treating U.S. assets as the safest, most productive home for money. With Japan locked in deflation and Europe flirting with stagnation, America remains the only game in town with real depth, liquidity, and growth.

Then there’s the $7 trillion parked in money-market funds — “cash on the sidelines,” as strategists like to say.

It’s the psychological residue of the 2022-2023 trauma: investors burned by rate hikes, inflation shocks, and geopolitical chaos. But as yields drift lower and confidence rebuilds, that capital won’t sit still. When the tide turns, the chase for return could turn 2026 into one of the most explosive years in recent memory.

Even geopolitics may be shifting from headwind to tailwind. Whispers of a trade détente with China suggest a pragmatic recalibration after years of decoupling. A peace framework in the Russia-Ukraine war (even a partial one) would redirect trillions from defense and commodities toward productivity and infrastructure. Either outcome could unlock a surge of global risk appetite, especially across Europe and emerging markets.

Meanwhile, AI — the bubble everyone sees — could also be the bridge to the next expansion.

The Setup for 2026

Beneath the hype, real productivity gains are taking root. The billions pouring into GPUs, data centers, and model development are infrastructure, not vapor.

Just as the railroads of the 1800s or the internet of the 1990s laid down the wiring of new economies, AI is building the scaffolding for a transformation that could define the next generation.

That doesn’t mean the road ahead is smooth. Sticky inflation, political friction, and overextended consumers will test the system.

Corrections will come.

But if 2025 turns out to be a year of consolidation — a pause rather than a pop — the setup for 2026 is formidable: leaner balance sheets, massive liquidity, and a global economy starved for optimism.

The best bull markets never begin in confidence; they begin in disbelief.

Right now, disbelief runs the show. That’s what makes this moment feel so dangerous… but so full of potential.