The China Con

This week’s mailbag included questions on China as a superpower, threats to the global financial system, and the best way to invest in gold.

Here are a few questions:

Q: Is China still on par with the U.S. both economically and militarily? – Barbara M.

A: Chinese GDP is often touted as a measure of success, but it is way overstated. Investment is roughly 45% of Chinese GDP compared to about 25% in most developed economies. Over half of Chinese investment is wasted. I’ve been to China many times and have seen the empty ghost cities and the monumental train stations that are mostly empty. If that wasted investment were written-off, Chinese GDP would drop from 5.0% to 3.6%. With honest accounting for bad debt in the government-controlled banks, Chinese GDP would drop to 2.0% or lower. China’s government debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% makes it impossible for China to grow faster than its growing debt burden. This dynamic makes future growth even more difficult. As for military superiority, China is not even close to U.S. capability despite the last administration’s cuts in spending on new weapons and combat readiness. China touts its lone aircraft carrier without mentioning that it was actually built by Russia. China is trying to build an aircraft carrier fleet, but that’s an immensely complex task that can take twenty years to fully implement. China threatens U.S. aircraft carriers with an attack from a Chinese hypersonic missile. That’s possible, but the U.S. response would be to sink the entire Chinese fleet – something similar to what Japan did to Russia in 1905, and the U.S. did to Iran in 1988. An invasion of Taiwan is not in the cards despite continual threats. So, the China threat is not what the mainstream narrative makes it out to be. It’s still a significant part of the global economy and a country to reckon with, but economic and societal threats will not keep China on par with the United States.

Q: What is the biggest threat to the global financial system today? – Martin S.

A: What the Fed and the Treasury have done (mostly under Biden) is to create a global dollar shortage, which is now morphing into a global liquidity crisis. China is not dumping Treasuries because they’re distancing themselves from the dollar. Quite the opposite. China is selling Treasuries because they’re desperate for dollars and can’t get them from Japanese banks who have their own problems. The liquidity crisis then goes back to European banks who can’t fund in Eurodollars and U.S. hedge funds who can’t find collateral to support their derivatives basis trades. India is not immune either. The best description of a financial crisis I’ve ever heard is that “Everybody wants his money back.” We’re dangerously close to that situation right now. If it gets worse, trade, tariffs and stock markets will be a sideshow. Watch Treasury yields and foreign exchange markets if you really want to know what’s going on.

Q: In your view, what are the best ways to invest in gold? – Larry P.

A: My long-time readers know I recommend allocating 10% of investable assets into physical gold. There are other options available as well, including buying paper gold like exchange-traded funds as well as shares of mining companies. There is also a way to collect gold profits without ever investing in the metal itself or investing in any companies that deal with the exploration or production of gold. Gold royalty and streaming companies have one of the best business models in the entire precious metals sector. Here is how the “royalty” business operates. In exchange for an upfront payment, a royalty owner will receive a predetermined percentage of the gross revenue from a mine’s future gold production over that mine’s entire future life. When costs for mining fluctuate, or if they aren’t producing enough to meet expectations, it really doesn’t matter. Royalty companies still get a cut off the top. These backdoor plays are a way to trade gold with fantastic upside leverage, combined with much less downside risk. And because we see gold ready to shoot higher, these companies don’t even need that cushion — allowing them to bring in even higher profits that will spark a huge pop in gold royalty shares. We have made gains on some gold royalty stocks in the Strategic Intelligence portfolio and will be recommending more in future issues so keep an eye out for them.