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Transcript UNC 010524

UNC Jan 5 Transcript

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It&rsquo;s the most dangerous time for investors since the 1930s&hellip; and new threats to your wealth appear every week.
That&rsquo;s why we created Rickards Uncensored &mdash; a weekly Zoom broadcast that takes you deeper into Jim Rickards&rsquo; research and analysis than is possible in any other format.
Each Friday, Jim, his team and special invited guests will share their absolute latest thoughts on what&rsquo;s happening in the world &mdash; helping you navigate today&rsquo;s troubled markets.
You&rsquo;ll hear from seasoned traders&hellip; retirement specialists&hellip; commodities experts&hellip; government officials&hellip; financial heavyweights&hellip; even Jim himself.
Members of this elite team predicted the 2008 housing bubble&hellip; the gold price spikes in 2010 and 2019&hellip;&nbsp; American Airlines&rsquo; bankruptcy in 2011&hellip; Donald Trump&rsquo;s election victory in 2016&hellip; the pandemic-fueled market crash in 2020&hellip; the bond collapse in 2021&hellip; and more.
So you can count on them to tell you the unvarnished truth &mdash; regardless of how controversial it may be&hellip;
They&rsquo;ll also answer viewers&rsquo; questions, ensuring you get the answers you need.
You won&rsquo;t find a better source of information on what&rsquo;s next for the global economy&hellip; and what you should do right now. Get it all in a LIVE broadcast every Friday morning.&nbsp;

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Insider trading is illegal. But that doesn&rsquo;t stop connected insiders from using their first-hand knowledge to take advantage of the market.
It can feel like you&rsquo;re always just behind the curve, only acting on news after it breaks.
But Jim Rickards' Insider Intel offers another way.
It helps you take advantage of stocks that insiders are quietly piling into.
We&rsquo;re not talking about following the paper trail that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires when company executives and institutions make big trades.
Instead, Jim and his team scan the markets for subtle signs of &ldquo;off the books&rdquo; trading &mdash; using the proprietary I-3 Indicator.
Once it&rsquo;s zeroed in on suspicious activity, Jim&rsquo;s team examines the macroeconomic and fundamental clues that could explain the signals.
If everything checks out, they&rsquo;ll tell you the best way for you to cash in on the expected move.

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Rickards Uncensored Call (with Byron King 1/5/2024)

Mailbag

Stocks are moving higher so far today as Wall Street likes the prepared remarks given by Fed Chair Jay Powell at the annual Fed economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
He has left the door open for a rate cut in September and said, &ldquo;The economic outlook may warrant a change in Fed policy&rdquo;.
But be careful what you wish for. Rate cuts are associated with recession and even a depression, not a strong economy. It might be good news for markets, but bad news for the economy and consumers. We&rsquo;ll closely monitor any further comments by Powell today to keep you informed.
Welcome to another session of Ask Me Anything.
For those who have recently joined our community, the financial analysis you receive might seem overwhelming at first. Don&rsquo;t worry&hellip; we are here to help by breaking down complex issues in meaningful and simple ways.
That&rsquo;s why every week, I will answer select questions that you send into our mailbag.
Since I can&rsquo;t talk to you personally (although I love conversations with readers at our company events), these Ask Me Anything sessions will give you insight into our trading strategies and what&rsquo;s top of mind for me and my team each week.
Even though I can't give personalized investment advice, you can submit general questions, and we will publish a few selected ones on a weekly basis.
The selected questions for this week are interesting because they show how geopolitics, technology and government policies can impact different sectors of the stock market in different ways. Review them carefully below.
The mailbag included questions on GPT-5 and AI valuations, the defense sector, and the future for the Chinese economy.
Here are a few:
Q: What does the new GPT-5 model of OpenAI say about the future of artificial intelligence and its sustainability? &ndash; Ron M.
A: The roll-out of the new GPT-5 model from OpenAI was a fiasco, although some users at least got a laugh out of how bad it was. The disappointment with its performance was understandable. Among the disappointments were that the answers were too short, the writing lacked personality, and the program&rsquo;s insistence that there are three Bs in blueberry. It seems like Sam Altman is taking a step backwards in his quest for superintelligence. An even bigger problem in terms of the stock market valuations of AI champions is that markets are rewarding companies for spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI data centers and development without regard to whether any profits are produced. Investors seem to take the future profits for granted. That may lead to a disappointment in earnings and the mother of all stock market corrections. If GPT-5 is any indication, that outcome may arrive sooner rather than later.
Q: Do geopolitical hotspots and continued threats of kinetic warfare make the defense sector an investment opportunity? &ndash; Kenneth R.
A: In short, U.S. military weapons systems are badly depleted, largely obsolete and not readily replaced even if it made sense to do so, which it does not in most cases. The solution is to start fresh with new advanced weapons designs, new technology and new factories. This rearmament process will take five-to-ten years to show initial results and twenty years to fully rebuild the U.S. military to the status of best in the world. In addition to well-established names like Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX, formerly Raytheon), and Boeing (BA), investors should consider newer firms in the sector that have quickly established solid connections and key contracts. Since much of the technology needed is new or still in development, established firms do not have an edge and newer firms may even hold an advantage since they are not bound by legacy systems and processes. These firms include Kratos Defense and Securities Systems (KTOS) with a specialty in military electronics and robotics and Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which is a leader is massive data mining and artificial intelligence and a favorite of the U.S. intelligence community because of its ability in high-speed search and profiling. A defense and intelligence surge of the kind needed will take ten years to achieve scale and perhaps twenty-five years before the surge runs its course. It follows that the sooner investors make their moves, the greater the profits will be over time.
Q: What will Trump&rsquo;s high tariffs on China do to the Chinese economy and markets? &ndash; Sarah S.
A: If one considers the three pillars of the Chinese economy to be domestic consumption, investment and trade, then two of those pillars (consumption and investment) are already failing. Thanks to Trump&rsquo;s tariffs the third pillar (trade) may be about to collapse also. The impact of tariffs on China including an industrial slowdown and soaring youth unemployment are already apparent. Chinese exports benefitted from some efforts to bring forward demand to beat the tariffs in February and March. It will benefit further because Trump&rsquo;s recent 90-day extension on tariff negotiations runs past October, which allows most of the Christmas goods deliveries to take place before tariffs are raised. Still, this relief is all temporary. The full impact of U.S. tariff increases will hit China dramatically from November forward. China is weakening with or without U.S. pressure. Trump may apply the final push in the form of steep tariffs later this year. Still, China&rsquo;s path is clear including loan defaults, corporate bankruptcies and a maxi-devaluation of the yuan. This is all happening in real time. Investors beware.
We&rsquo;ll have more featured questions answered from the mailbag next week. One may even be yours or a question that has been on your mind, so stay tuned.

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Jim Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence is designed to help you prepare and profit from the coming collapse of the dollar.
It&rsquo;s masterminded by Jim Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of the The Road to Ruin, Currency Wars, The Death of Money, The New Case for Gold and more.
He&rsquo;s spent over 40 years in investment banking, international economics, political and national intelligence advisory roles. As adviser on international economics and financial threats to the Department of Defense and the U.S. intelligence community, he served as a facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon.
To safely guide your investments, Jim has developed a revolutionary way of looking at the financial system and stock markets. He calls it &ldquo;complexity theory,&rdquo; which has been used by government intelligence agencies but never applied to the financial world.
Jim will use this theory to help you build safe investment positions in stocks, bonds, cash, art, land, precious metals and other hard assets.&nbsp;
You can get Jim&rsquo;s research every month &mdash; with weekly email updates &mdash; in Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence.

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Crisis Trader with Jim Rickards uses proprietary algorithms to peer into corporate balance sheets &mdash; uncovering the ugly secrets of popular companies.
You don&rsquo;t want these names in your portfolio. But you can set yourself up for massive profits when the truth inevitably comes to light.
Jim Rickards and Dan Amoss can show you how. They correctly predicted every move the Federal Reserve made to fight inflation. And now they believe we&rsquo;re on the verge of a historic economic downturn.
Most investors are completely unprepared for the wave of bank failures and corporate bankruptcies that will rock Wall Street.
Luckily, you don&rsquo;t have to be caught unaware.&nbsp;
Jim and Dan will guide you through the worst of what&rsquo;s to come &mdash; revealing opportunities to score big wins from the market&rsquo;s worst stocks.

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The Jackson Hole Speech: Markets Approve

Updates

What does the war in Ukraine have to do with the price of groceries in your local supermarket and gas at the pump? A lot more than you may realize.
Let&rsquo;s look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine and then widen the aperture to show how it affects the Middle East, trade with China and India, and ultimately the price of oil and the innumerable goods that arrive in your town by diesel trucks.
The narrative the western media puts out is that the war is a stalemate, Russian casualties are enormous, the Russian economy cannot sustain the pace of the war, and that with more weapons and money sent to Ukraine the tide can be turned, and Russia can be stopped in its efforts. Every facet of that narrative is false.
<h2 class="subhead">No Ceasefire for Russia</h2>
Russian troops are making advances along a 500-mile front from the southern Donbass to Kursk. It only seems slow because the Russia way of war is slow, methodical and lethal. Russian troops do not quickly assault a target city. They spend up to a year taking every village and town adjacent to the target until it is completely surrounded. Only then &ndash; when the defenders are isolated and cut off from resupply or rescue &ndash; do the Russian go in for the kill. Defenders are given a chance to surrender but are annihilated if they don&rsquo;t.
This methodical pattern has played out in battles for Mariupol (2022), Bakhmut (2023), Avdiivka (2024) and Chasiv Yar (2025). The next major target is Pokrovsk, a medium-sized city in southern Donbas but a critical logistics hub. Once the Russians take it, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) will lose the ability to supply other positions along the entire front. At that point, there will be little to prevent Russian victories in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Lyman. From there, the Russian army will advance to the Dnieper River and gain effective control of all of eastern Ukraine. That&rsquo;s not a stalemate; it&rsquo;s a prelude to total victory.
The UAF have also suffered a total breakdown in the north as a result of their reckless invasion of Kursk (part of the Russian Federation) from the Ukrainian province of Sumy. The Russians repelled the invaders, wiped them out, and advanced in Sumy to create a security perimeter. This can also serve as a jumping off point for an assault on Kiev if the war goes that far.
This is why Putin has rejected Trump&rsquo;s call for an unconditional ceasefire. The UAF and Zelensky naturally want a ceasefire to rearm, rest and reposition for a continuation of the war. Russia will never agree because they are winning decisively and have the UAF in full retreat or else surrounded. This is where Trump&rsquo;s failure to understand Russia and the Russian way of war begins to echo in the global economy.
<h2 class="subhead">Sanctions and Assistance Won&rsquo;t Work</h2>
Putin will enter negotiations and end the war at any time but only on his terms. Trump believes he has leverage over Putin through economic sanctions and new deliveries of weapons and money to Ukraine. Trump is wrong on both counts. Here&rsquo;s why:
Every U.S. weapons system supplied to Ukraine since 2022 has failed. The Russians can jam the GPS guidance systems in the HIMARS artillery. Patriot anti-missile systems (that cost a billion dollars each) can&rsquo;t stop Russian hypersonic missiles and have been blown up one at a time. Abrams, Challenger and Leopard tanks supplied by NATO have been left burning on the battlefield. The F-16 fighter jets supplied by Biden are being shot down by advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems.
Supplying more failed weapons systems won&rsquo;t change the tide of war. Money won&rsquo;t help either because it&rsquo;s simply stolen by the Ukrainian neo-Nazi oligarchs.
Trump gave Putin an ultimatum, which expired on August 8. Putin did not comply (and no serious analyst expected he would). Trump will now lose face and lose credibility if he does not punish Russia. Hundreds of economic sanctions on Russia have failed since 2023. The Russian economy is outperforming the U.S. economy, and the ruble is at the same level against the dollar as before the war. New sanctions will also fail. Weapons and money will fail for the reasons described above.
<h2 class="subhead">What&rsquo;s Left for Trump?</h2>
Trump&rsquo;s next move involves secondary sanctions. These are economic sanctions imposed on third parties that do business with Russia instead of being imposed on Russia itself. The main targets for secondary sanctions are China and India.
Both China and India purchase large amounts of Russian oil. They pay mainly in U.S. dollars. Those dollars fuel the Russian war machine. Trump threatens to impose huge tariffs on Chinese and Indian exports to the United States if those countries don&rsquo;t stop buying Russian oil. This is the set-up for another Trump failure.
India and China need the Russian oil to fuel their growing economies. They will continue to buy it. At that point, Trump may impose the tariffs. But at the same time, India and China are both engaged in regular trade negotiations with the White House as the U.S. has been doing with countries around the world. It should come as no surprise that the India and China tariff negotiations have not been going well. Why should they agree to regular tariffs without knowing whether punitive tariffs are right around the corner? They won&rsquo;t.
China and India have various ways to respond. They could redirect their exports to friendly countries in Europe or Brazil and Australia. They could impose countervailing tariffs on U.S. exports to them, including soybeans and high-tech. They could restrict U.S. investment in their growing economies. The list goes on. What is certain is that the Trump tactic of secondary sanctions will hurt world trade and increase costs on many traded goods.
The biggest single cost will be a higher price for oil. That&rsquo;s because Russia, India and China will all incur costs in insurance markets and ghost tanker fleets needed to evade the sanctions in the first place. Who wins from higher oil prices? Russia. Who loses? U.S. consumers who pay higher prices for gas at the pump compared to a world without sanctions.
<h2 class="subhead">The Solution? Flood The Oil Market</h2>
The best course for Trump to end the war and help Americans is to end the sanctions on Russia and refrain from any secondary sanctions. The next step is to flood the market with oil whether it comes from Russia, Saudi Arabia or the U.S. itself. That would drive the price of oil from $65.00 per barrel to $40.00 per barrel or even lower.
Who loses from low oil prices? Russia. Oil prices of $40.00 or less will bring Putin to the bargaining table and help end the war in Ukraine. Trump doesn&rsquo;t understand how markets work and where the real leverage is against Russia. He&rsquo;s under the sway of the neocons and warmongers like Lindsey Graham, Keith Kellog and Marco Rubio. Based on their advice, Trump will continue to fail in Ukraine and with Russia.
The economic impact of Trump&rsquo;s misguided approach to Ukraine will not be highly inflationary but it will stand in the way of any disinflationary trend. Oil prices will move higher as Trump gets more desperate to put pressure on Putin. Let&rsquo;s hope that the more reasonable voices like JD Vance and Pete Hegseth can persuade Trump to avoid the secondary sanctions on China and India. That could moderate oil prices. But I wouldn&rsquo;t count on it. For now, the warmongers seem to be in charge.
We will keep a close eye on the Trump-Putin meeting this Friday for any breakthroughs in negotiations. Right now, Russia is holding all the cards.

What Ends the War in Ukraine? More Oil

It's prom season in Silicon Valley, and everyone's scrambling to pair up.
No one wants to be left alone on the big night.
OpenAI, this decade's undisputed AI prom queen, was once exclusively on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)&rsquo;s arm.
But things have changed.
In recent weeks, Microsoft and OpenAI have struggled to agree on terms for their next deal.
The partnership that launched the AI revolution is showing cracks.
While Microsoft invested $13.75 billion in OpenAI and built the supercomputers that made ChatGPT possible, the relationship has gotten complicated.
The two companies are now competing for the same customers.
And OpenAI is looking for more dance partners.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The $30 Billion/yr AI Deal</h2>
Last month, Oracle (ORCL) disclosed a cloud deal that would generate a staggering $30 billion in annual revenue.
This week, we learned that customer is OpenAI.
Yes, that's $30 billion in a single year.
For perspective, Oracle's entire cloud revenue last year was just $24.5 billion.
This is a monster deal that sent Oracle's stock to an all-time high.
Oracle is an investment we added to the Altucher Investment Network portfolio last May, which is now up over 110%.
But Oracle isn't the only new friend in OpenAI's circle.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Slicing the Trillion-Dollar AI Pie</h2>
Google (GOOG) Cloud has also quietly been added to OpenAI's list of suppliers.
This is particularly interesting given that Google is OpenAI's biggest competitor in the AI race.
For Microsoft, this new "open relationship" status isn't necessarily bad news.
Yesterday's earnings proved just how well Microsoft is doing without exclusive access to OpenAI.
The company beat expectations across every metric, with revenue coming in $2.5 billion ahead of forecasts.
Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, grew 39% - well above the expected 34-35% range.
More importantly, Microsoft's AI investments are already paying off.
The company now has over 100 million people using its Copilot AI tools each month.
After three years of deep integration with OpenAI's technology, Microsoft has built enough AI capabilities into its products that it could conceivably succeed without OpenAI.
The earnings call also revealed that Microsoft can now process 90% more AI requests using the same computer chips compared to a year ago.
This efficiency gain means they're getting much more value from every dollar spent on AI infrastructure.
Microsoft's Azure cloud platform remains the preferred choice for businesses, with 57% of IT leaders planning to increase their Azure spending in the next year.
Yesterday's results showed Azure revenue for the full year topped $75 billion - the first time Microsoft has shared this number publicly
Still, Microsoft and OpenAI are likely to remain close.
Bloomberg reports they're nearing an agreement that would give Microsoft ongoing access to OpenAI's technology.
However, no updates on those negotiations were mentioned during yesterday's earnings call.
The bigger story here isn't about who's dating whom.
It's about the unstoppable demand for AI infrastructure.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Insatiable Demand</h2>
Microsoft's latest results show that even with recent economic uncertainty, companies are rushing to adopt AI tools.
The company's commercial bookings grew 30% to over $100 billion for the first time.
The pie is growing so fast that everyone can get a bigger slice.
We're seeing unprecedented demand for AI computing resources.
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, recently tweeted: "If anyone has GPU capacity in 100,000 chunks we can get ASAP, please call!"
That wasn't a joke.
OpenAI is desperately seeking more computing power wherever it can find it.
Microsoft faces the same challenge - CFO Amy Hood said the company still has more demand than supply for its AI services.
This is why OpenAI needs Oracle, Google, and yes, still Microsoft.
No single cloud provider can satisfy the growing hunger for AI computing power.
For investors, this means one thing: the companies providing the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush will continue to thrive.
Microsoft stock is up roughly 4.5% today, putting the company&rsquo;s valuation at just under $4 trillion.
Whether it's Microsoft, Oracle, Google, or the chip makers powering it all, the infrastructure providers are positioned to generate extraordinary returns as AI transforms every industry.
This isn't just another tech cycle.
The wealth being created by AI will likely be generational, flowing primarily to those who own the fundamental building blocks enabling this revolution.
The prom may be getting crowded, but there's plenty of punch to go around.

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With the simple mantra of &ldquo;Choose Yourself,&rdquo; James has built a massive following &mdash; helping people find new and unusual opportunities to generate inward success.
Now he wants you to achieve the next step: True financial freedom and independence.
He&rsquo;s tapping into the skills he developed as a hedge fund manager and venture capitalist to reveal every secret he&rsquo;s ever learned about building wealth.
And he&rsquo;s not alone.&nbsp;
James is connected to the biggest players in Silicon Valley and Wall Street. So he&rsquo;s hand-picked a team of investment experts and trading superstars to create Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network &mdash; connecting you directly to their wealth of knowledge.
You&rsquo;ll learn tips for navigating Wall Street&hellip; personal finance strategies.. and tricks to boost retirement income. The team will also tell you specific ways to get ahead of hot investment trends like AI, cryptocurrencies, biotech, cybersecurity and driverless cars.
With Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network, you&rsquo;ll have the tools to start building a personal financial fortress to live a life of abundance and true financial well-being.

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OpenAI's Open Relationship

We&rsquo;re seeing a lot of talk about overbought conditions right now across the market. The financial media loves to talk a big game about pullbacks and anything that will get investors fearful and clicking on their headlines.
While it is true that stocks are getting a little overbought here, it&rsquo;s not set in stone that we&rsquo;ll see a broad pullback soon or even at all!
You see, the stock market doesn&rsquo;t move in straight lines. And while it's tempting to assume that every rally ends in a sharp pullback, the reality is more nuanced.
In these types of environments investors often brace for a correction. But overbought conditions can resolve in several ways, not all of them involve steep declines.
Let&rsquo;s start by talking a bit about what overbought actually means.
The term typically refers to a situation where stocks have moved up too far, too fast, relative to their historical trend or technical indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index). It's a signal that bullish enthusiasm may have run a bit hot.
But being overbought doesn't mean the market must pull back.
It simply means that prices have outrun fundamentals, or investor sentiment has reached optimistic extremes and some sort of cooling-off may be in order.
Rather than predicting doom every time stocks stretch higher, it's more productive to understand a few different ways the market can digest these elevated levels&hellip;
One of the most common, often overlooked, ways to work off overbought conditions is through consolidation.
In this scenario, prices trade sideways within a range for weeks or even months. There&rsquo;s little downside, but also little upside.
This kind of action helps reset valuations, cool off sentiment, and allow earnings or economic data to catch up to price levels.
Ironically enough, these types of situations can be even more frustrating than a broad pullback due to the amount of time it takes to resolve.
It can be frustrating for momentum traders but healthy for the overall structure of the market. You can think of it as the market catching its breath.
Another way stocks can find their way out of overbought conditions is through a shift in leadership.
If tech stocks led the rally and are now overbought, money may rotate into energy, industrials, or financials. This quiet handoff beneath the surface helps ease pressure without dragging the entire market lower.
So while the broader indices may not show dramatic movement, there could be an active rebalancing to reset in relative strength under the hood.
And yes, sometimes the market does take a breather by pulling back.
Prices may fall 3&ndash;5% or more as investors lock in profits and wait for better entry points.
This is the most obvious resolution and what many expect when they hear the term overbought.
The key point, though, is that not every dip signals the start of a deeper bear market. It's often just the market resetting expectations and absorbing gains.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
Reacting to overbought signals with fear or excessive caution can lead to missed opportunities. Instead of exiting positions prematurely or without a plan, it may be more prudent to tighten stop-losses, reduce risk in extended names, or look for relative strength in under-owned sectors.
It also highlights the value of patience.
Just because a stock or index has run hot doesn&rsquo;t mean the only option is a fast reversal. Sometimes the market just needs time to restore balance.
Overbought signals are just that, signals.
They suggest caution, not a total panic move.
What comes next might be a pullback, sure. But it could just as easily be a cooling period, a sector rotation, or even continued strength if sentiment doesn&rsquo;t slow down or we get some good news to support another leg higher.
For investors, the key is not to assume the worst, but to stay flexible, watch for signs of shifting momentum, and stick to your strategy.

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Lifetime Income Report is dedicated to bringing you great stocks offering the biggest payouts.&nbsp;
But it&rsquo;s not just about looking for high yields. You want a company that can sustain its dividends &mdash; and increase them as its business grows.
Zach Scheidt, a former hedge fund manager, knows all the tricks for finding Wall Street&rsquo;s biggest values. In fact, his&nbsp; &ldquo;Three Pillars of Income Investing&rdquo; system is designed to zero in on the best of the best.
Each monthly issue of his Lifetime Income Report walks you through the research, showing you exactly why his latest discovery deserves a spot in your portfolio.
Expect to see a lot of household names as well as lesser-known dividend-payers in hot markets like&nbsp; alternative energy and cloud computing.&nbsp;
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With Zach&rsquo;s help, you can build a diversified set of income streams so you never have to worry about money again.

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Overbought Conditions Can Resolve in a Variety of Ways

After six months of drama, threats and compromise, Trump&rsquo;s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is now law. But what&rsquo;s in it and how will it impact you and your money?
This summary is qualified by the fact that the bill is over 1,000 pages long and it&rsquo;s impossible to cover every provision and loophole in a single article.
Even with the items mentioned below, there are technical definitions and exceptions to exceptions that require expert analysis beyond the scope of one article. Some of the tax credits and deductions are phased out for those with high incomes. Different effective dates mean that some of these provisions are not effective until 2026.
That said, here are the highlights:
&bull; Permanently extends the lower tax rates Trump passed in 2017. &bull; Increases the standard deduction by $750 for individuals and $1,500 for couples. &bull; Permanent increase in the child tax credit to $2,200. &bull; Full expensing of business capital investment and domestic research and development expenses. &bull; Eliminates most itemized deductions. &bull; Limits on gambling loss deductions so that winnings may still be taxed. &bull; Eliminates the moving expense deduction except for active-duty military and intelligence officials. &bull; Raise the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000. &bull; No tax on overtime pay up to $12,500 for individuals and $25,000 for a couple. &bull; No tax on tips up to $25,000. &bull; Tax credits allowed for contributions to groups that fund private school scholarships. &bull; Increase the reporting threshold for payments to independent contractors. &bull; Taxes on farmland sales can be paid in installments. &bull; Eliminate the firearms transfer tax. &bull; Increase the income tax on large college endowments.
<h2 class="subhead">Other Changes and Provisions</h2>
In addition to these provisions, there are some important changes of note.
Environmental related provisions will expedite environmental reviews for investment projects and rescind funds under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (actually the Green New Scam in disguise) for green energy programs that were diverted to progressive activist groups.
In the area of natural resources, the OBBB will replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was depleted by Joe Biden for political purposes. The moratorium on new coal leasing permits will end. Oil and gas leasing in Alaska is approved. Onshore oil and gas lease sales will be expanded, and timber harvesting will be increased.
This is why your American Birthright is more important than ever. As the Trump administration makes it easier for energy and mining companies to do business with the federal government, it opens up profit opportunities for you as an investor.
Of course, there&rsquo;s more to the OBBB, but the most important provisions are noted above. This list of funding, recissions and tax programs show that OBBB was truly a landmark piece of legislation comparable to LBJ&rsquo;s Great Society and FDR&rsquo;s Hundred Days programs.
The ultimate success of the OBBB remains to be seen, but there is no question about its economic impact on affected programs and that it was an historic example of promises made and promises kept by President Trump.

The Beautiful Bill: How It Impacts You

You probably saw the dramatic headlines too.
Last quarter, Tesla (TSLA)&rsquo;s car sales slipped 13%.
But what you might not have noticed was that another part of their business exploded 154% higher.
And the powerful force driving that rapid growth is about to become the most important investment story of the decade.
You see, Tesla isn't just a car company anymore.
It&rsquo;s the company building the infrastructure that will prevent America's power grid from collapsing under the weight of the AI revolution&hellip;
<h2 class="subhead nbp">A Crisis Nobody Saw Coming</h2>
Meta learned this lesson during their LLaMa 3 training. Their research paper mentions "instant fluctuations of power consumption across the datacenter on the order of tens of megawatts, stretching the limits of the power grid."
Meta experienced these fluctuations at a 30-megawatt facility with &ldquo;just&rdquo; 24,000 GPUs.
So imagine the fluctuations at a more massive AI training operation with over 100,000 GPUs working in perfect synchronization.
Suddenly, all those processors pause for a checkpoint save. In milliseconds, gigawatts of power demand vanishes from the grid. Then, just as quickly, it all comes roaring back online when the training run restarts.
Our century-old power grid was never designed for an electronic heartbeat this massive that can flatline and restart in fractions of a second.
Engineers are so desperate they've created a command to generate dummy workloads just to keep power stable. Even though, at the gigawatt scale, those dummy workloads cost tens of millions annually in wasted electricity.
Recent analysis from Texas's grid operator reveals the nightmare scenario: if just 2.6 gigawatts of datacenter load suddenly disconnects, the entire state faces cascading blackouts.
This isn't theoretical. In July 2024, 1.5 gigawatts of Virginia data centers unexpectedly disconnected, and grid operators barely prevented a regional blackout.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Scale of What's Coming</h2>
Goldman Sachs estimates data center power demand will grow 160% by 2030.
Deloitte projects AI's share of total datacenter demand rising from 12% to 70%, with combined utility and hyperscaler capital expenditures reaching $1 trillion by 2032.
We're heading toward 176 gigawatts of total datacenter demand by 2035, with AI representing almost three quarters of that figure.
It will be the most unstable load the grid has ever seen.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Enter Tesla's Strategic Position</h2>
During the first quarter, Tesla&rsquo;s energy storage business deployed 10.4 gigawatt-hours of batteries, generating $2.73 billion in revenue with 26.2% profit margins.
The company&rsquo;s Megapack 2 XL is a giant battery. But it&rsquo;s more than that &ndash; it&rsquo;s a grid stabilization tool.
These systems can absorb or inject hundreds of megawatts in milliseconds, perfectly matching the chaotic power patterns of AI training.
Each Megapack stores 3.9 megawatt-hours of energy, enough to power 3,600 homes for an hour. More importantly, they can charge and discharge at megawatt per millisecond rates.
The financial results are already accruing to Tesla. The energy business generated $10.1 billion in revenue during 2024, growing 67% with supply constraints limiting even faster expansion.
Musk recently said "it won't be long" before Tesla's energy storage business ships 100GWh per year, eventually growing to "multiple terawatt-hours per year."
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Money Trail </h2>
The revenue opportunity is materializing faster than anyone expected.
Tesla just signed a 4 billion yuan ($556 million) deal to build China's largest grid-scale battery power plant, marking their first major grid-storage project in the world's second-largest economy.
This is particularly significant because Tesla beat domestic Chinese champions like CATL, which holds 40% of global market share.
Meanwhile, Musk&rsquo;s xAI invested $230 million in Tesla Megapacks for their Memphis "Colossus" facility, Intersect Power ordered 15.3 GWh of Megapacks for projects through 2030, and Massachusetts contracted $413 million for 800 MWh of storage capacity.
Every hyperscaler racing to build AI infrastructure faces the same choice: install grid stabilization systems or risk getting disconnected by utilities.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">It&rsquo;s A Big Platform Play</h2>
Tesla isn't building separate businesses &ndash; they're building one integrated technology platform capturing revenue across multiple trillion-dollar markets.
The same power management technology that will keep Optimus robots running powers these grid-scale batteries. Musk&rsquo;s dreams of colonizing Mars will require identical ultra-reliable energy storage technology.
Unlike selling cars where Tesla gets paid once, battery electric storage systems (BESS) can generate recurring revenue through grid stabilization services, demand response programs worth hundreds of thousands per facility annually, energy arbitrage trading, and backup power contracts.
A single gigawatt-scale datacenter requires $500 million to $1 billion in battery infrastructure that Tesla operates and monetizes for decades.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Competition Vacuum</h2>
Traditional UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply) companies make systems for brief power outages, not continuous grid balancing.
Their largest systems handle tens of megawatts, while Tesla deploys hundreds.
Battery startups lack manufacturing scale, but Tesla's Lathrop Megafactory now produces 200 Megapacks per week with Shanghai adding 20GWh more capacity.
Chinese battery companies face geopolitical restrictions on critical infrastructure deployments.
Tesla has an early mover advantage, proven reliability at scale, and existing relationships with every major AI company.
And their over-the-air software updates mean Megapacks get better over time, just like their cars.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Investment Implications</h2>
The market is still pricing Tesla as an automotive company facing EV competition, but the energy storage opportunity alone could justify Tesla's entire $960 billion market cap.
Tesla solved the most critical infrastructure challenge of the AI revolution before most people realized it existed.
While automotive investors worry about EV competition, Tesla became essential infrastructure for global AI dominance.
The company that made electric cars cool is now the company that can keep the AI revolution from breaking the world's power grids.
That's not a car company anymore.
It&rsquo;s a platform company positioned at the center of every major technology trend of the next decade.

ALN-UPDATE-07-09-25-IMG-POST

Elon’s New $2 Trillion Grid Empire

Miscellaneous

It&rsquo;s time to clear up one of the biggest misunderstandings in capital markets today. It&rsquo;s a misunderstanding that can lead to disastrous results for investors if not explained and viewed correctly.
We all know that the U.S. national debt just crossed the $37 trillion mark. It&rsquo;s growing so fast that it will hit $38 trillion not long after you read this. The debt has gone up millions of dollars while I&rsquo;ve been writing this. Despite the work of DOGE and the White House, Trump&rsquo;s Big Beautiful Bill will add even more to debt and deficits.
At the same time, the U.S. has weaponized the dollar in the geopolitical battlespace. We&rsquo;ve put economic sanctions on Russia, secondary sanctions on China, and worked with NATO to steal $300 billion in lawfully purchased U.S. Treasury securities from Russia. All of these sanctions were facilitated by the role of the U.S. dollar as the leading reserve currency.
This combination of seemingly out-of-control debt and deficits and a weaponized dollar have caused many countries to re-think their dollar reserve holdings. This is part of the explanation for the massive accumulation of gold bullion by major central banks and finance ministries. Gold has no yield but it serves as an everything hedge against inflation, war, social unrest and natural disaster. Best of all, gold is physical, not digital, and cannot be frozen, seized or confiscated by political enemies. If you have physical gold in secure vaults, it&rsquo;s yours short of a full-scale invasion of your country.
The description above is accurate. Debt and deficits are growing. The dollar has been weaponized. Central banks and finance ministries are accumulating enormous amounts of gold. The problem is that these facts have given rise to a narrative that is completely false. And it&rsquo;s a narrative that could lead investors to significant losses in the months ahead.
<h2 class="subhead">The Narrative</h2>
The narrative goes like this: The days of the dollar as the leading reserve currency are coming to an end. Countries are eagerly seeking alternatives (in addition to gold), which could include cryptocurrencies or a new currency being planned by the BRICS. The euro has been strong against the U.S. dollar for the past six months and euro-denominated bonds issued by Germany and Italy may offer another investment avenue. China has been promoting the yuan as a payment currency with potential to become a reserve currency in future. Russia, Iran and other countries are seeking a way out from under U.S. dollar sanctions. Putting all of these factors together, it appears that the move away from the U.S. dollar is in full swing.
Another part of the narrative is that U.S. debt and deficits have spooked the bond market. The so-called bond vigilantes are ready to dump U.S. Treasuries or at least demand higher interest rates to own them. These higher rates will make the U.S. deficit even worse and set off a debt death spiral that will end in hyperinflation or U.S. default.
So, the world is ditching the dollar and U.S. institutions are ditching U.S. bonds. The sky is about to fall. Investors have been encouraged to dump Treasuries, buy stocks and enjoy the show.
<h2 class="subhead">Here Are The Facts</h2>
Interest rates on U.S. Treasuries have not been soaring. In fact, they&rsquo;ve been falling sharply at the short-end of the yield curve and coming down gradually in the intermediate sector (5-year and 10-year maturities).
The yield-to-maturity on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.5% in mid-April. Today, it&rsquo;s 4.25%. That&rsquo;s not a sell-off; that&rsquo;s a rally. Bond prices move inversely to rates so investors in U.S. Treasury had nice capital gains on that rate decline.
The yield-to-maturity on the pivotal 2-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.0% in mid-April. Today it&rsquo;s 3.75%. Another rally. The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill at the short end of the yield curve was 4.38% in mid-May and sits at 4.30% today. Another capital gain for investors.
So, where&rsquo;s the selloff in Treasuries? It doesn&rsquo;t exist. The term &ldquo;bond vigilantes&rdquo; was coined in the 1980s in response to hyperinflation in the late 1970s. The bond vigilantes haven&rsquo;t saddled up since then. That&rsquo;s ancient history. Treasuries are performing strongly &ndash; rates down and prices up producing gains for investors. The bond sell-off part of the narrative is simply false.
What about the &ldquo;end of the dollar&rdquo; part of the narrative. Here are the facts: The BRICS are not creating a new currency. They may in time, but that can take ten years to develop (based on the euro) and thirty years to replace an existing dominant reserve currency (the time it took sterling to decline from 1914-1944). So, don&rsquo;t hold your breath for that.
The BRICS are buying gold, but we&rsquo;ve already acknowledged that gold is an alternative to the dollar. But there are limits on that since gold cannot be used for payments unless physically transferred. And massive gold sales for cash would sink the price. Gold is a monetary asset, but it does not replace cash.
The dollar doom crowd points to another data set instead. They look at the Treasury International Capital System (TIC), which is a periodic report of holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by major holders. By comparing TIC reports over time, you can ascertain if foreign central banks are increasing or decreasing their holdings.
According to the most recent TIC report, Chinese holdings of Treasuries declined from $759 billion at the end of 2024 to $757 billion at the end of April 2025 (most recent data available). Hong Kong holdings declined from $255 billion at the end of 2024 to $247 billion at the end of April 2025. South Korean holdings of Treasuries declined from $124.9 billion to $121.7 billion over the same four-month period. Treasury holdings by Saudi Arabia declined from $137.5 billion to $133.8 billion in the same period.
Aha! The dollar doom crowd point to these declines in Treasury holdings as proof that foreign central banks are dumping U.S. Treasuries ahead of an impending loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated Treasury securities. Case closed.
There are numerous flaws in this part of the narrative. It is true that Treasury holdings decreased from December to April in the countries noted above. But Treasury holdings increased over the same period in the UK, Belgium, Cayman, Luxembourg, France and Switzerland. So, the dumping narrative does not hold up when a broader list of countries is considered. Importantly, Belgium, Cayman and Luxembourg are well-known tax havens or clearing centers that act as proxies for holdings by China and major hedge funds. It&rsquo;s difficult to conclude that China is reducing its Treasury holdings without more information about the true owners behind the Cayman Islands accounts.
<h2 class="subhead">The Real Reason for Dumping Treasuries</h2>
There&rsquo;s an even more powerful refutation of the narrative that reduced Treasury holdings mean a run on the dollar. Even in the face of reduced Treasury holdings by a major foreign holder, one must ask why? The narrative says the holder is dumping Treasuries and fleeing the dollar. The opposite is true.
Central banks do not actually hold dollars in their reserve accounts. They hold dollar-denominated securities mostly U.S. Treasuries. There&rsquo;s a difference. Dollars are cash, which can be held in the form of bank deposits, money market funds or short-term Treasury bills in 4-week maturities. Treasury securities are often 2-year, 5-year, or 10-year maturity notes or even 30-year bonds. Those securities are safe and liquid but they&rsquo;re not cash.
When China sells Treasury securities, they do so to get cash to prop up their currency or bail out their banks. They&rsquo;re not running from Treasuries; they wish they had more. The reality behind the curtain of the international monetary system is that there&rsquo;s a global dollar shortage, which is bordering on a major monetary liquidity crisis. Selling Treasuries is a way to get cash in a world that is starving for dollars. Far from a sign that the dollar is in decline, these sales of Treasuries are symptomatic of a world that needs more dollars, not fewer.
<h3 class="subhead">A Good Set-up For Investors</h3>
As usual, the narrative bears no relationship to reality. The narrative claims the dollar is about to be abandoned as the global reserve currency and bond vigilantes are demanding higher interest rates on Treasuries. The reality is that central banks are starved for dollars and interest rates are declining and will decline further. This is a set-up for capital gains for those who invest in Treasury securities today.
Don&rsquo;t follow the Global Reset crowd at the moment. The dollar and Treasury securities are doing just fine. So will investors who buy them now.

Soaring resource costs&hellip; crashing stock prices&hellip; chaos on Wall Street&hellip;
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The Case for Treasuries

In 2017, I told people they could make $50,000 a week with drones. People thought I was crazy.
Back then, drones were toys. Maybe you'd spot one at a tech conference or see a rich kid flying one at the park.
Most businesses had no idea what to do with them.
Eight years later, those "toys" are everywhere.
They take photos of real estate listings. They record videos at fancy parties. They spray crops and inspect power lines.
But here's the crazy part. We're still in the stone age of drone technology.
Why? Because every single drone still needs a human to fly it.
That's about to change in a big way.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Spotlight on Drones</h2>
Earlier this month, Ukraine pulled off a modern version of a Trojan Horse.
For 18 months, Ukrainian intelligence secretly smuggled hundreds of small drones into Russia using regular trucks.
When the moment came, these hidden drones launched at once.
They destroyed at least 22 Russian bomber planes worth billions of dollars.
Each drone cost just a few hundred dollars.
Two weeks later, Israel did something similar.
They had secretly positioned drone teams inside Iran for months.
When Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, these hidden drones attacked first.
They knocked out Iran's air defenses and let Israeli jets take complete control of Iranian airspace in just a few hours.
But the battlefield isn&rsquo;t the only place where drones are getting attention.
Walmart announced earlier this month that it will bring drone delivery to five new cities.
Since 2021, they've dropped over 150,000 packages from the sky.
Now they want to do a lot more.
Customers in five cities will soon be able to get eggs, ice cream, and medicine dropped at their door in 30 minutes or less.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">How AI Can Solve the &ldquo;Pilot&rdquo; Problem</h2>
All these operations still need human pilots.
Ukraine's Spider's Web needed teams of people flying drones in shifts.
Israel's Iran mission required multiple human controllers working together.
Every Walmart delivery needs a person watching the flight.
This creates a big limit.
You can only fly as many drones as you have trained people.
Managing airspace for dozens of flights at once becomes impossible for humans.
For drones to realize their full potential, we&rsquo;re going to need to be able to coordinate the movements of tens of thousands of drones simultaneously.
That's where AI changes the game.
In April, a computer beat the world's best drone pilots at their own sport.
At a racing championship in Abu Dhabi, an AI drone from a Dutch university destroyed the competition.
The AI didn't just win. It beat three former world champions.
The computer-controlled drone completed the course with 22 gates in just 17 seconds.
It hit speeds of nearly 60 miles per hour on a winding track designed to challenge the best pilots in the world.
The winning team built computer brains that sent commands straight to the drone's motors.
Old autopilot systems are too slow for high-speed flying.
The AI had to see obstacles and make decisions faster than any human could.
It learned by practicing millions of times on a computer before flying for real.
The drone used just one camera to spot gates, avoid crashes, and stay in control at top speed.
Most importantly, it worked reliably with bad lighting, wind, and interference.
This proves AI is reaching the point where it can handle the hardest flying jobs.
If computers can beat humans at drone racing, they can easily manage delivery flights or military missions.
Instead of needing one person per drone, a single AI system could control hundreds or thousands of drones at once.
Picture Walmart launching 1,000 delivery drones every hour in a big city.
Each drone would avoid other aircraft, find its destination, and come back for the next job.
No human pilots needed.
Or think about military uses where AI coordinates massive drone swarms.
Each drone would share information with others instantly, adapting to new situations without human help.
The technology is getting better fast.
AI and drone technology coming together is creating opportunities that seemed impossible just a few years ago.
For investors wanting to profit from this trend, several public companies offer ways to invest in the drone revolution.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The AI Drone Opportunity</h2>
Unusual Machines Inc (UMAC), Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT), and AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) are just 3 of the many companies that develop drones with AI capabilities for military and civilian purposes.
These companies sit where two powerful technology trends meet.
And while I&rsquo;m not officially recommending UMAC or RCAT today, AVAV is an opportunity that we&rsquo;ve previously recommended and are tracking in the Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network portfolio.
The drone market keeps growing fast, and AI is removing the last big barrier to widespread use.
We're seeing the start of a change that will reshape industries from shipping to farming to national defense.
Just like the internet created whole new types of businesses, self-flying drone technology will unlock possibilities we haven't thought of yet.
The companies that master AI-powered drone systems today will control the skies tomorrow.
For early investors who spot this shift, the wealth creation potential could be life-changing.

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Igniting the Drone Revolution

We&rsquo;ve been writing for years about actual crises that can affect you and your families. We write from the perspective of crises that can cause physical harm such as storms and other natural disasters. These include hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, tornadoes and more.&nbsp;
We also write about crises that can damage your portfolio and your net worth. These include bank runs, market panics and social unrest. Some crises can affect both your health and financial well-being. The 2020 pandemic is a good example. Millions died from health effects while stock markets crashed 30% in one month during March 2020. By the way, we predicted the 2020 pandemic and the market crash over a year in advance in my 2019 book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Aftermath-Secrets-Wealth-Preservation-Coming/dp/0735216959/ref=sr_1_1">Aftermath</a>.
In this month&rsquo;s edition of Crisis Survival Insider, we&rsquo;re going to do something different. We&rsquo;re going to write about crises that are not crises at all. It&rsquo;s difficult to gather the financial, medical and technical resources you need to withstand actual crises. But it&rsquo;s the case that increasingly, individuals are devoting time and effort to matters that aren&rsquo;t even real crises. Instead of being concerned about events that are real, wouldn&rsquo;t it be a relief to stop being concerned about things that are not real?&nbsp;
It's unfortunate that political activists, phony scientists and fearmongers have ginned up a long list of alleged crises that don&rsquo;t exist. They do this because they want to attract political followers, make money off donations or get you to invest in &ldquo;solutions&rdquo; that are not needed at all because the threat does not even exist. Their supposed threats are invented simply to change your behavior or to get your money.&nbsp;
This phony threat industry does more than just skim your money or get you to follow their recommendations to advance their political agendas. The promoters of fake threats cause anxiety in the general population. They cause people to worry about things that are not even happening except in the imaginations of the threat promoters and their media stooges.&nbsp;
Let&rsquo;s look at three so-called threats that are not real at all. Once we internalize this information, we can all rest a little easier.&nbsp;
Fake Threat #1 - Climate Change. You all know the rap. The world is burning up. Wildfires and extreme weather are out of control. Oceans are rising and will soon cause the elimination of island nations and flood the New York City subways. Crops will not grow. Oh, and don&rsquo;t forget about polar bears. They&rsquo;ll soon be extinct. You&rsquo;ve heard this from Al Gore and Greta Thunberg and even the United Nations. Countries need to stop burning oil and natural gas, rely solely on windmills and solar modules and everyone should buy an electric vehicle (EV). If you follow that advice, all will be well.&nbsp;
That&rsquo;s the propaganda. Here are the facts. Climate change is real as evidenced by the Roman Warm Period (around 200 BC), the Medieval Warm Period (around 1000 AD) and the Little Ice Age (1350-1850 with a peak around 1665). But those changes evolved slowly. Notice how all of them pre-date the Industrial Revolution, carbon emissions and the automobile?&nbsp;
In fact, there is no evidence that CO2 has anything to do with climate change. The causes of climate change (if it&rsquo;s even happening today) are solar cycles, volcanoes, ocean currents, subduction and other large scale natural phenomena that humans cannot control at all. That said, the evidence for global warming today is scant.&nbsp;
Extreme weather is not getting worse. Tornados peaked in the 1940s. Hurricanes peaked in the 1950s and 1960s. Drought was prevalent in the U.S. in the late 1920s. The most accurate data shows the ocean may be rising at about 7 inches per 100 years. That&rsquo;s barely enough to get your feet wet by 2125. (After the last Ice Age about 12,000 years ago, oceans rose 400 feet. Humans survived just fine). In short, none of the extremes predicted by the climate cult are true.&nbsp;
Here&rsquo;s the good news: There is no climate crisis. Polar bears are thriving. You can enjoy your sports sedan and your backyard barbecue with a clear conscience.&nbsp;
Fake Threat #2 &ndash; The End of the Dollar. You hear and see this claim on every website and every financial broadcast you tune into. According to the hysterical so-called analysts, China is dumping U.S. Treasury bonds, the BRICS will be launching a new currency to replace the dollar, and the dollar&rsquo;s days as the leading reserve currency are numbered.&nbsp;
None of these claims is true. The identify of the leading reserve currency does change from time to time but the process can take 30 to 50 years, and you can see it coming a mile away. In 1914, sterling was the leading reserve currency. It lost that role permanently in 1944 after the Bretton Woods conference. Still that process took thirty years. And there were many signposts along the way, including two world wars and major devaluations in 1931 and again in 1936. Sterling was replaced by the dollar, but it took decades to play out and asset allocators have ample time to make the switch.&nbsp;
Do we see any signs of that happening to the dollar today? Actually, no. The dollar maintains a share of about 60% as the currency of major reserve assets, mostly U.S. Treasury securities. The dollar is the currency of choice in about 80% of global payments and almost 100% of payments for oil. The BRICS do not have an alternative currency; they are working on an alternate payments system, but that&rsquo;s not a currency.&nbsp;
It is true that the Chinese have been selling U.S. Treasury securities but that&rsquo;s not a sign of dumping dollars. Quite the opposite. The Chinese are desperate to get dollars to prop up their currency and their banks. Selling Treasuries is the easiest and fastest way for them to get dollars in a world that is actually suffering a dollar shortage.
If you want to know how the dollar is doing, don&rsquo;t look at euros, yen or other currencies. Look at gold. The price of gold is going up sharply, which means dollars are worth less when measured by weight of gold. That&rsquo;s a reason to have gold in your portfolio (I recommend 10%), but it&rsquo;s not a reason to worry about dollars. They&rsquo;re still the only game in town when it comes to banking, savings, payments and global reserves.&nbsp;
Fake Threat #3 &ndash; A Chinese Invasion of Taiwan. There&rsquo;s no doubt that Communist China considers Taiwan to be part of China. There&rsquo;s also no doubt that China will pursue reunification with Taiwan as long as it takes. But that&rsquo;s not the same as invading Taiwan and pushing the world to the brink of World War III.&nbsp;
The Chinese military has grown, and their weapons technology has improved. But they are still no match for the U.S. in the event of an invasion. And the U.S. would not be alone. We could count on help from Japan, Australia and possibly India to resist the Chinese.&nbsp;
Among other countermeasures, the U.S. would interdict all oil flows into China by blockading chokepoints such as the Straits of Malacca. The Chinese economy (and military) would grind to a halt within weeks. And the Chinese know it. The U.S. could also use air power and precision guided missiles to sink the Chinese invasion fleet and to sink their entire navy within days.&nbsp;
The more likely reunification scenario is that pro-mainland political parties in Taiwan will win elections and seek reunification on a negotiated basis. That&rsquo;s not good for U.S. national security, but it&rsquo;s not an invasion and it&rsquo;s far from World War III. An even more likely scenario is that China collapses internally due to failures of the Chinese Communist Party leadership. That would be a huge win for the U.S. It would cause problems of its own but, again, it&rsquo;s not an invasion scenario.&nbsp;
So, the planet is not burning up, the dollar is not collapsing, and China is not invading Taiwan.&nbsp;
Feel better? Hopefully you do. There are enough real dangers in the world. We should not spend time and effort worrying about the fake ones.

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3 Phony Threats Not Worth Your Worry Time

In 2008, I published a book called &ldquo;The Forever Portfolio.&rdquo;
It was horrible.
Not because the content was bad, but because nobody was interested in buying it.
When my publisher saw the numbers, he wanted to throw me out of the window.
If he had read the book and waited a few years, he might have felt differently&hellip;
As the name suggests, the book describes a group of stocks you can buy and hold forever.
The book predicted the success of companies like Eli Lilly (which has since returned 24x), Mastercard (which has since returned 39x), and Taser (which has since returned 197x).
It might sound unbelievable, but Chapter 3 actually predicted a global pandemic&hellip; 12 years before Covid-19.
But I&rsquo;m not here to talk about the past.
Because there is an opportunity too big to ignore.
And it might be only weeks away.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Cyber-Stock Scenario</h2>
Which brings me to Chapter 2 of the Forever Portfolio&hellip; cybersecurity.
Sounds boring and complicated. Believe me, I know.
But bear with me, because it&rsquo;ll be worth the effort.
As I said in the book, it's only a matter of time before we see a large internet attack.
When that time comes, cybersecurity companies are going to skyrocket by 2x, 5x, even 10x&hellip;
Which brings me to today&rsquo;s big news.
Overnight, Israel launched an attack on Iranian military officials and nuclear facilities.
In response, Iran launched a drone attack on Israel which was largely unsuccessful.
While things have quieted momentarily, it seems this attack is just the first of many.
This morning, President Trump announced on Truth Social that: &ldquo;Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left.&rdquo;
This raises the possibility of an escalation to a full out war with the potential for cyberattacks.
In recent years, cybersecurity has been a critical tool in Israel&rsquo;s defense strategy.
In 2010, Israel is believed to have used a virus to target and remotely destroy Iran&rsquo;s nuclear arsenal.
Israel is also believed to have used a virus to cause a small explosion at the Natanz nuclear facility in Iran in 2021.
Then, of course, there was the operation in 2024 when Israel remotely detonated bombs inside Hezbollah&rsquo;s pagers ahead of a ground invasion into Lebanon.
If history is any indicator, the next round of fighting with Iran could potentially include some element of cyber-warfare.
Which is good for cyber-security stocks.
Cybersecurity is a bit like going to the dentist&hellip; it's the kind of thing that no one wants to think about or spend money on, but if you ignore it, the problem gets bigger over time.
Highly visible cyber attacks are the best possible advertising that cybersecurity companies can ask for
Cybersecurity sales have historically ramped up following big cyber incidents like the ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline in 2021 or Caesar&rsquo;s casinos in 2023.
Attacks on governments have a similar effect.
Earlier this month, we saw drone stocks skyrocket following Ukraine&rsquo;s attack on Russian military bases, followed by Russia&rsquo;s own drone attacks in response.
I would not be surprised if we see a similar trend play out in the coming days or weeks should the conflict between Israel and Iran continue to escalate.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Palo Alto Networks - A Rocketship Cybersecurity Opportunity</h2>
One of our favorite picks in the Cybersecurity space is Palo Alto Networks (PANW).
As we first described in our monthly issue in October of 2023, the company is a one-stop shop for cybersecurity products, software, and services.
The company is a leader in providing security solutions with multiple layers of security necessary for properly protecting systems that incorporate cloud software.
Palo Alto Networks sells its technology as a subscription service, which provides a reliable - and sticky - source of ongoing revenue.
Although the company was founded two decades ago - long before cloud technology became as essential as it is today - they&rsquo;ve managed to continue to innovate and stay relevant&hellip; despite major shifts in technology.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Bottom Line</h2>
Palo Alto&rsquo;s ability to innovate is most clear in their development of AI-powered products offered by their Next Generation Security (NGS) division.
One of the tools within NGS is the company&rsquo;s Cortex platform.
Cortex connects the different systems within an organization's infrastructure and uses AI to analyze vast amounts of data and detect unusual activity patterns.
As of the most recent quarter, NGS generated more than $5 billion in annual recurring revenue&hellip;. Roughly 34% higher than one year earlier.
The company plans to grow this number three-fold, to $15 billion by 2030.
In their latest quarter, Palo Alto Networks had decent results, beating expectations for both revenue and earnings.
Their revenue for the third quarter came in at $2.29 billion, which is up over 15% from last year.
Looking ahead, the company also expects strong results for the fourth quarter and the full year, projecting full-year 2025 revenues to be between $9.17 billion and $9.19 billion&hellip; or about 14.5% growth from 2024.
While some investors might have thought the quarter was nothing special, leading to a slight dip in stock price after the earnings report, the growth in NGS shows that the company is still on track to achieve its long-term goals.
No matter how challenging the economy gets, the AI revolution makes cybersecurity more critical than ever.
Based on the progress made in the third quarter and growing demand for cybersecurity, I&rsquo;m as bullish as ever on the stock.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Why Palo Alto Networks Could Be the Big Winner</h2>
Tensions between Israel and Iran are rising by the day. Full blown war could break out at any moment. And when it does, cyber attacks will follow.
History shows us what happens next. Every time there's a major cyber incident, security companies soar.
We saw it with the pipeline attack. We saw it with the casino hack. We saw it just weeks ago with drone stocks.
The pattern is clear as day.
Palo Alto Networks sits right in the sweet spot. They're the leader in cybersecurity with $8 billion in recurring revenue.
Their AI-powered tools are exactly what companies need to protect themselves. And they're growing fast - 34% growth in their most important division.
But here's the thing most investors are missing&hellip;
You don't have to wait until 2030 to see massive gains.
The next cyber attack could happen tomorrow. Next week. Next month.
Smart investors know that the best time to buy is before the crowd realizes what's happening.
Because when the next major cyber attack hits - and it will hit - cybersecurity stocks like Palo Alto Networks won't just benefit.
They'll soar.
We may be on the edge of something big.
And if you&rsquo;ve read this far, you&rsquo;re already ahead of the curve.

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Iran War Alert: Buy Cyber

Paradigm Press LLC, provides independent economic commentary, analysis and education through print and online publications, videos, online seminars, conference calls and more.

We provide independent economic commentary, analysis and education through print and online publications, videos, online seminars, conference calls and more.

Rickards Uncensored Call (with Byron King 1/5/2024)

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