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Transcript UNC 010524

UNC Jan 5 Transcript

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It&rsquo;s the most dangerous time for investors since the 1930s&hellip; and new threats to your wealth appear every week.
That&rsquo;s why we created Rickards Uncensored &mdash; a weekly Zoom broadcast that takes you deeper into Jim Rickards&rsquo; research and analysis than is possible in any other format.
Each Friday, Jim, his team and special invited guests will share their absolute latest thoughts on what&rsquo;s happening in the world &mdash; helping you navigate today&rsquo;s troubled markets.
You&rsquo;ll hear from seasoned traders&hellip; retirement specialists&hellip; commodities experts&hellip; government officials&hellip; financial heavyweights&hellip; even Jim himself.
Members of this elite team predicted the 2008 housing bubble&hellip; the gold price spikes in 2010 and 2019&hellip;&nbsp; American Airlines&rsquo; bankruptcy in 2011&hellip; Donald Trump&rsquo;s election victory in 2016&hellip; the pandemic-fueled market crash in 2020&hellip; the bond collapse in 2021&hellip; and more.
So you can count on them to tell you the unvarnished truth &mdash; regardless of how controversial it may be&hellip;
They&rsquo;ll also answer viewers&rsquo; questions, ensuring you get the answers you need.
You won&rsquo;t find a better source of information on what&rsquo;s next for the global economy&hellip; and what you should do right now. Get it all in a LIVE broadcast every Friday morning.&nbsp;

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Insider trading is illegal. But that doesn&rsquo;t stop connected insiders from using their first-hand knowledge to take advantage of the market.
It can feel like you&rsquo;re always just behind the curve, only acting on news after it breaks.
But Jim Rickards' Insider Intel offers another way.
It helps you take advantage of stocks that insiders are quietly piling into.
We&rsquo;re not talking about following the paper trail that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires when company executives and institutions make big trades.
Instead, Jim and his team scan the markets for subtle signs of &ldquo;off the books&rdquo; trading &mdash; using the proprietary I-3 Indicator.
Once it&rsquo;s zeroed in on suspicious activity, Jim&rsquo;s team examines the macroeconomic and fundamental clues that could explain the signals.
If everything checks out, they&rsquo;ll tell you the best way for you to cash in on the expected move.

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Our proprietary I-3 Indicator shows you how to cash in on the same moves that Wall Street’s insiders are quietly making.

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Rickards Uncensored Call (with Byron King 1/5/2024)

Miscellaneous

For those who have recently joined our community, the financial analysis you receive might seem overwhelming at first. Don&rsquo;t worry&hellip; we are here to help by breaking down complex issues in meaningful and simple ways.
That&rsquo;s why every week, I will answer select questions that you send into our mailbag.
Since I can&rsquo;t talk to you personally (although I love conversations with readers at our company events), these Ask Me Anything sessions will give you insight into our trading strategies and what&rsquo;s top of mind for me and my team each week.
Even though I can't give personalized investment advice, you can submit general questions, and we will publish a few selected ones on a weekly basis.
So, if you have any questions you would like me to answer, please send them along to <a href="mailto:askjim@paradigmpressgroup.com">askjim@paradigmpressgroup.com</a>. We will select a few in upcoming Ask Me Anything sessions.
The mailbag included questions on Trump&rsquo;s deregulating agenda, century bonds, and a major foreign policy blunder.
Here are a few:
Q: How will President Trump handle the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in allowing America to open its abundant resources to keep up with AI demand for energy resources? As deregulation is needed, do you believe he will disband the FERC? &ndash; Jeff W.
A: Trump will not disband the FERC. His preferred method in dealing with regulatory agencies is to capture them with his own appointees who are supportive of his deregulatory agenda. FERC will not stand in the way of opening U.S. natural resource development including oil, natural gas and uranium mining and processing. This is good news for investors who take advantage of American Birthright opportunities coming down the pipeline.
Q: Would issuing 100-year bonds be effective in reducing the U.S. national debt? &ndash; Tom R.
A: Issuing 100-year bonds by itself does not reduce the national debt. The Treasury would simply be substituting one maturity (100-years) for some shorter maturity (say, 10-years) without reducing the total debt. Still, 100-year debt might carry lower interest rates than other maturities because those instruments would be highly attractive to institutions with long-term liabilities such as insurance companies and endowments. A lower interest rate could save the government some interest expense, which could reduce the deficit slightly.
Q: Has Trump&rsquo;s latest tariffs on India shaken the India - U.S. economic alliance against China? If so, how will this impact global trade? &ndash; Brenda B.
A: Trump&rsquo;s tariffs on India are a huge blunder. The idea was to impose secondary sanctions on India because they buy oil from Russia and export refined products to the rest of the world. This effectively bypasses sanctions on Russian oil exports. The U.S. tariffs on India have not changed a thing. India has made it clear that they will continue to buy Russian oil. But the tariffs have soured a budding economic alliance between India and the U.S. The U.S. should ally with India and Russia in order to isolate China. Instead, the U.S. has alienated India and Russia and driven them closer to China. This will prove to be one of the greatest failures in the history of U.S. foreign policy. The impact on world trade will be slight but the damage to U.S.-India trade will be enormous.
That&rsquo;s it for this week. Thanks for all your questions sent in.
We&rsquo;ll have more featured questions answered from the mailbag next week. One may even be yours or a question that has been on your mind, so stay tuned.
All the best, Jim Rickards Editor,&nbsp;Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence
P.S. I wanted to make sure this message got to you right away...
Because this coming&nbsp;Tuesday, September 9th, I believe the biggest financial story of the year is going to break wide open...
That&rsquo;s when Apple CEO Tim Cook is expected to take the stage and make a major announcement that my friend and colleague James Altucher is predicting.
That&rsquo;s why it&rsquo;s imperative you move FAST, before 1 PM ET on Tuesday, September 9th. That&rsquo;s only a few days from now.
If you aren&rsquo;t in before Apple makes this announcement, you&rsquo;ll be too late.
<a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2475828" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2475828">Click here and James will show you the urgent details &ndash; including the simple steps on how you can take action</a><a href="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2475670" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-sk="tooltip_parent" data-stringify-link="https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2475670">.</a>

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Jim Rickards&rsquo; Strategic Intelligence is designed to help you prepare and profit from the coming collapse of the dollar.
It&rsquo;s masterminded by Jim Rickards, New York Times bestselling author of the The Road to Ruin, Currency Wars, The Death of Money, The New Case for Gold and more.
He&rsquo;s spent over 40 years in investment banking, international economics, political and national intelligence advisory roles. As adviser on international economics and financial threats to the Department of Defense and the U.S. intelligence community, he served as a facilitator of the first-ever financial war games conducted by the Pentagon.
To safely guide your investments, Jim has developed a revolutionary way of looking at the financial system and stock markets. He calls it &ldquo;complexity theory,&rdquo; which has been used by government intelligence agencies but never applied to the financial world.
Jim will use this theory to help you build safe investment positions in stocks, bonds, cash, art, land, precious metals and other hard assets.&nbsp;
You can get Jim&rsquo;s research every month &mdash; with weekly email updates &mdash; in Jim Rickards' Strategic Intelligence.

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Crisis Trader with Jim Rickards uses proprietary algorithms to peer into corporate balance sheets &mdash; uncovering the ugly secrets of popular companies.
You don&rsquo;t want these names in your portfolio. But you can set yourself up for massive profits when the truth inevitably comes to light.
Jim Rickards and Dan Amoss can show you how. They correctly predicted every move the Federal Reserve made to fight inflation. And now they believe we&rsquo;re on the verge of a historic economic downturn.
Most investors are completely unprepared for the wave of bank failures and corporate bankruptcies that will rock Wall Street.
Luckily, you don&rsquo;t have to be caught unaware.&nbsp;
Jim and Dan will guide you through the worst of what&rsquo;s to come &mdash; revealing opportunities to score big wins from the market&rsquo;s worst stocks.

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Unearth the ugly secrets buried in the balance sheets of popular stocks — and position yourself for maximum gains when their hidden crises get too big to ignore.

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A Green Light for American Birthright Opportunities

Updates

We are really starting to see the cracks show in the current market leadership right now&hellip; And investors are starting to recognize a noticeable change in what&rsquo;s working in the market.
After months of steady gains, stemming from the rebound move that kicked off in April, many of the stocks that powered higher during that rally are now running out of steam.
Traders who rode those names up are taking some of their profits off the table. And we&rsquo;re likely to see this trend continue as we settle into September, a seasonally volatile time for stocks.
However, while some might view this as weakness, there&rsquo;s another side to the story that shows we&rsquo;re seeing some healthy action right now.
It all has to do with rotation, something we have talked about a few times now. Specifically, two sectors I saw benefiting from this rotation were homebuilders and biotech names.&nbsp;
Today, I want to take a look at two more sectors I believe are poised to perform well as this rotation extends.
But first, let&rsquo;s look at how these rotations form.
The rally that began in April was powerful. But no rally goes in a straight line.
When stocks run too far, too fast, they get stretched on both technical and fundamental levels.
Prices move well ahead of earnings growth or realistic expectations. That&rsquo;s when disciplined traders step in and take money off the table.
The recent wave of profit-taking is a reflection of that discipline.
Names that more than doubled or surged 30 to 50% in just a few months are now cooling off.
It doesn&rsquo;t mean those companies are suddenly bad investments; it just means the market needs to reset itself. Some of these stocks have simply gotten too expensive. 
And overheated names can&rsquo;t carry the entire market forever.
So when traders sell expensive stocks, they often turn around and redeploy that capital into cheaper names.
This rotation is the lifeblood of a healthy market. It allows momentum to broaden out rather than stay concentrated in a handful of sectors or mega-cap companies.
Without rotation, markets risk becoming top-heavy.
That kind of imbalance eventually collapses under its own weight. But when capital starts to flow into other areas such as small caps, financials, industrials, cyclical names, or others, it signals a more sustainable rally.
So while we last talked about biotech and homebuilders being two areas I am seeing money rotate into, I wanted to look at two more pockets of opportunity that stand to benefit from lower interest rates.
With pressure mounting on the Fed to start cutting rates, we could quickly see these sectors pick up steam.
First up, let&rsquo;s look at small cap stocks&hellip;
Smaller companies tend to thrive when borrowing costs come down.
They&rsquo;re more sensitive to changes in financing conditions because they often rely heavily on debt to fund growth.
Lower rates mean easier access to credit, cheaper financing, and better margins.
Historically, small caps have outperformed during periods of monetary easing, and traders are already beginning to rotate into these names.
With extra pressure on the Fed, I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised for some of these small caps to really blossom, at least in the short-term.
And one way to position yourself for gains on small caps is with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (<a href="http://my.paradigmpressgroup.com/ticker/IWM">IWM</a>). 
ETFs act as a great way to gain exposure to a sector without having to do the leg-work of researching individual companies.
Then, some more stocks I see performing well in the coming months are the large cap financial companies.
When rates fall, corporations find it cheaper to issue bonds or refinance existing debt.
That translates directly into business for big banks, which earn substantial fees for underwriting and structuring those deals.
As companies rush to take advantage of lower borrowing costs, financial giants see a surge in activity across debt capital markets.
That makes them attractive plays during times of monetary easing.
So for active traders, it can pay to avoid clinging to overheated stocks.
If a position has delivered strong gains since April, it may be time to take profits and look for opportunities in sectors just beginning to benefit from the next phase of this cycle.
That doesn&rsquo;t mean abandoning quality companies altogether.
It means reading the writings on the walls.
This kind of discipline helps traders avoid giving back gains while positioning themselves for the next wave of leadership.

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Lifetime Income Report is dedicated to bringing you great stocks offering the biggest payouts.&nbsp;
But it&rsquo;s not just about looking for high yields. You want a company that can sustain its dividends &mdash; and increase them as its business grows.
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Each monthly issue of his Lifetime Income Report walks you through the research, showing you exactly why his latest discovery deserves a spot in your portfolio.
Expect to see a lot of household names as well as lesser-known dividend-payers in hot markets like&nbsp; alternative energy and cloud computing.&nbsp;
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With Zach&rsquo;s help, you can build a diversified set of income streams so you never have to worry about money again.

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Market Leaders Give Way For Rotation Trades

The Army doesn't waste time on its top priority science projects.&nbsp;
So when they advance Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) to the finals of their elite xTechSearch 9 competition&mdash;the Army's premier technology competition for breakthrough defense applications&mdash;they're signaling something important: deployable nuclear reactors aren't science fiction anymore.&nbsp;
They're strategic necessities.
Moreover, while the S&amp;P 500 suffered through its longest losing streak since January, NNE was building the infrastructure that separates them from every competitor.
The timing couldn't be better as a bounceback opportunity if you missed out when we recommended NNE last December as a way to take advantage of an abundant energy source powering the next phase of the AI revolution.
Yes, last week's market weakness drove NNE shares back under our original $38 'buy up to' price.
But the real story isn&rsquo;t Nano's daily price action. It is their operational acceleration that really sets them apart.
Even better, additional validation of our portfolio recommendation came this same month when NNE was selected for inclusion in the Global X Uranium ETF.
That gives the stock automatic exposure to institutions seeking broad participation in nuclear component growth.&nbsp;
<h3>The Acceleration&nbsp;</h3>
Behind the stock volatility, NNE management revealed timeline acceleration that strengthens their competitive position.&nbsp;
The company is targeting a Nuclear Regulatory Commission construction permit submission by the end of 2025 or early 2026, potentially making them the first commercial microreactor company to reach this critical milestone in the United States.
That's not just a technical achievement. It's a first-mover advantage worth billions in a market where being second risks becoming irrelevant.
A Canadian expansion adds another dimension the market isn't pricing in.&nbsp;
While competitors focus solely on U.S. opportunities, NNE is resuming formal licensing activities with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and working with Canadian Nuclear Laboratory on a Chalk River site.&nbsp;
This positions NNE as a North American provider of advanced nuclear technologies.
The infrastructure buildout tells the execution story.&nbsp;
They've acquired a 23,537-square-foot facility in Oak Brook, Illinois, specifically to support development of their flagship KRONOS microreactor with up to 60 nuclear engineers working in collaboration with the University of Illinois.&nbsp;
This isn't PowerPoint planning&mdash;it's concrete preparation for commercial deployment.
The company&rsquo;s proprietary ALIP pump technology reached assembly milestones and is advancing through the SBIR Phase III process, opening commercial sales opportunities later this year or in 2026.&nbsp;
When asked about applications, CEO Walker detailed demand from both fission and fusion companies, plus discussions with space agencies about reducing component size for space applications.
<h3>Following the Smart Money</h3>
NNE closed the quarter with $210.2 million in cash against a projected annual burn rate of $40 million. That's more than five years of operational runway without raising another dollar.
The company confirmed it&rsquo;s preparing to raise money. The timing makes sense given growing institutional interest following their May private placement that included fundamental institutional investors and a leading long-only mutual fund.
Moreover, the company was included in the URA ETF earlier this month. This provides automatic exposure to institutions seeking broad participation in uranium and nuclear component growth. With $4 billion in net assets, URA represents institutional flow.
Meanwhile, management reported active commercial negotiations with several AI data center customers while evaluating early-stage opportunities for remote projects in the U.S., Canada, and internationally.&nbsp;
These aren't hypothetical future customers&mdash;they're real negotiations happening now.
<h3>The Transformation Continues</h3>
The Trump administration's four executive orders promoting nuclear power created unprecedented regulatory tailwinds.&nbsp;
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. power demand will rise 2.4% annually through 2030, with data centers comprising 8% of total demand versus 3% in 2022.
NNE sits at the convergence of these trends with its technology.&nbsp;
Their KRONOS reactor benefited from over $120 million in prior development investment before NNE acquired it for less than $10 million. It's supported by a well-known high-temperature gas-cooled reactor design with decades of operational precedent globally.
The recent appointment of former Energy Secretary Rick Perry as Executive Advisory Board Chairman and Intel's Global Chief Technologist Seth Berl to the board signals the caliber of talent recognizing NNE's potential.&nbsp;
These aren't token advisory positions&mdash;they're strategic appointments by people who understand where the nuclear industry is heading.
<h3>Fast Tracking to First&nbsp;</h3>
Sometimes the most important developments in the market happen when everyone's looking elsewhere.
While analysts worried about diversification strategy, NNE demonstrated exactly why vertical integration matters in nuclear energy. The fuel supply chain represents the biggest bottleneck for advanced reactor deployment.
The stock&rsquo;s recent volatility creates opportunity for investors who recognize the difference between quarterly noise and secular transformation.&nbsp;
Our 53% gains through July came from positioning early in a nuclear renaissance that's now accelerating beyond our original expectations.
The company that seemed impossible to recommend just two years ago is now advancing toward construction permits, expanding internationally, and negotiating with real customers.&nbsp;
That's exactly the kind of transformation that creates massive investment opportunities for those positioned before the market catches up.
Nuclear energy just went from pariah to powerhouse faster than anyone expected. The recent selloff looks like a gift for anyone who understands the execution story unfolding behind the headlines.

ALN-alert-08-27-25(Featured)

With the simple mantra of &ldquo;Choose Yourself,&rdquo; James has built a massive following &mdash; helping people find new and unusual opportunities to generate inward success.
Now he wants you to achieve the next step: True financial freedom and independence.
He&rsquo;s tapping into the skills he developed as a hedge fund manager and venture capitalist to reveal every secret he&rsquo;s ever learned about building wealth.
And he&rsquo;s not alone.&nbsp;
James is connected to the biggest players in Silicon Valley and Wall Street. So he&rsquo;s hand-picked a team of investment experts and trading superstars to create Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network &mdash; connecting you directly to their wealth of knowledge.
You&rsquo;ll learn tips for navigating Wall Street&hellip; personal finance strategies.. and tricks to boost retirement income. The team will also tell you specific ways to get ahead of hot investment trends like AI, cryptocurrencies, biotech, cybersecurity and driverless cars.
With Altucher&rsquo;s Investment Network, you&rsquo;ll have the tools to start building a personal financial fortress to live a life of abundance and true financial well-being.

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James will tap his powerful network of business leaders and Wall Street insiders to help readers ascend to the next level of the Choose Yourself lifestyle: True financial freedom and independence.

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Altucher's Investment Network

The Pentagon Just Validated Our Nuclear Bet

Mailbag

Stocks are moving higher so far today as Wall Street likes the prepared remarks given by Fed Chair Jay Powell at the annual Fed economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
He has left the door open for a rate cut in September and said, &ldquo;The economic outlook may warrant a change in Fed policy&rdquo;.
But be careful what you wish for. Rate cuts are associated with recession and even a depression, not a strong economy. It might be good news for markets, but bad news for the economy and consumers. We&rsquo;ll closely monitor any further comments by Powell today to keep you informed.
Welcome to another session of Ask Me Anything.
For those who have recently joined our community, the financial analysis you receive might seem overwhelming at first. Don&rsquo;t worry&hellip; we are here to help by breaking down complex issues in meaningful and simple ways.
That&rsquo;s why every week, I will answer select questions that you send into our mailbag.
Since I can&rsquo;t talk to you personally (although I love conversations with readers at our company events), these Ask Me Anything sessions will give you insight into our trading strategies and what&rsquo;s top of mind for me and my team each week.
Even though I can't give personalized investment advice, you can submit general questions, and we will publish a few selected ones on a weekly basis.
The selected questions for this week are interesting because they show how geopolitics, technology and government policies can impact different sectors of the stock market in different ways. Review them carefully below.
The mailbag included questions on GPT-5 and AI valuations, the defense sector, and the future for the Chinese economy.
Here are a few:
Q: What does the new GPT-5 model of OpenAI say about the future of artificial intelligence and its sustainability? &ndash; Ron M.
A: The roll-out of the new GPT-5 model from OpenAI was a fiasco, although some users at least got a laugh out of how bad it was. The disappointment with its performance was understandable. Among the disappointments were that the answers were too short, the writing lacked personality, and the program&rsquo;s insistence that there are three Bs in blueberry. It seems like Sam Altman is taking a step backwards in his quest for superintelligence. An even bigger problem in terms of the stock market valuations of AI champions is that markets are rewarding companies for spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI data centers and development without regard to whether any profits are produced. Investors seem to take the future profits for granted. That may lead to a disappointment in earnings and the mother of all stock market corrections. If GPT-5 is any indication, that outcome may arrive sooner rather than later.
Q: Do geopolitical hotspots and continued threats of kinetic warfare make the defense sector an investment opportunity? &ndash; Kenneth R.
A: In short, U.S. military weapons systems are badly depleted, largely obsolete and not readily replaced even if it made sense to do so, which it does not in most cases. The solution is to start fresh with new advanced weapons designs, new technology and new factories. This rearmament process will take five-to-ten years to show initial results and twenty years to fully rebuild the U.S. military to the status of best in the world. In addition to well-established names like Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX, formerly Raytheon), and Boeing (BA), investors should consider newer firms in the sector that have quickly established solid connections and key contracts. Since much of the technology needed is new or still in development, established firms do not have an edge and newer firms may even hold an advantage since they are not bound by legacy systems and processes. These firms include Kratos Defense and Securities Systems (KTOS) with a specialty in military electronics and robotics and Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which is a leader is massive data mining and artificial intelligence and a favorite of the U.S. intelligence community because of its ability in high-speed search and profiling. A defense and intelligence surge of the kind needed will take ten years to achieve scale and perhaps twenty-five years before the surge runs its course. It follows that the sooner investors make their moves, the greater the profits will be over time.
Q: What will Trump&rsquo;s high tariffs on China do to the Chinese economy and markets? &ndash; Sarah S.
A: If one considers the three pillars of the Chinese economy to be domestic consumption, investment and trade, then two of those pillars (consumption and investment) are already failing. Thanks to Trump&rsquo;s tariffs the third pillar (trade) may be about to collapse also. The impact of tariffs on China including an industrial slowdown and soaring youth unemployment are already apparent. Chinese exports benefitted from some efforts to bring forward demand to beat the tariffs in February and March. It will benefit further because Trump&rsquo;s recent 90-day extension on tariff negotiations runs past October, which allows most of the Christmas goods deliveries to take place before tariffs are raised. Still, this relief is all temporary. The full impact of U.S. tariff increases will hit China dramatically from November forward. China is weakening with or without U.S. pressure. Trump may apply the final push in the form of steep tariffs later this year. Still, China&rsquo;s path is clear including loan defaults, corporate bankruptcies and a maxi-devaluation of the yuan. This is all happening in real time. Investors beware.
We&rsquo;ll have more featured questions answered from the mailbag next week. One may even be yours or a question that has been on your mind, so stay tuned.

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The Jackson Hole Speech: Markets Approve

What does the war in Ukraine have to do with the price of groceries in your local supermarket and gas at the pump? A lot more than you may realize.
Let&rsquo;s look at the situation on the ground in Ukraine and then widen the aperture to show how it affects the Middle East, trade with China and India, and ultimately the price of oil and the innumerable goods that arrive in your town by diesel trucks.
The narrative the western media puts out is that the war is a stalemate, Russian casualties are enormous, the Russian economy cannot sustain the pace of the war, and that with more weapons and money sent to Ukraine the tide can be turned, and Russia can be stopped in its efforts. Every facet of that narrative is false.
<h2 class="subhead">No Ceasefire for Russia</h2>
Russian troops are making advances along a 500-mile front from the southern Donbass to Kursk. It only seems slow because the Russia way of war is slow, methodical and lethal. Russian troops do not quickly assault a target city. They spend up to a year taking every village and town adjacent to the target until it is completely surrounded. Only then &ndash; when the defenders are isolated and cut off from resupply or rescue &ndash; do the Russian go in for the kill. Defenders are given a chance to surrender but are annihilated if they don&rsquo;t.
This methodical pattern has played out in battles for Mariupol (2022), Bakhmut (2023), Avdiivka (2024) and Chasiv Yar (2025). The next major target is Pokrovsk, a medium-sized city in southern Donbas but a critical logistics hub. Once the Russians take it, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) will lose the ability to supply other positions along the entire front. At that point, there will be little to prevent Russian victories in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Lyman. From there, the Russian army will advance to the Dnieper River and gain effective control of all of eastern Ukraine. That&rsquo;s not a stalemate; it&rsquo;s a prelude to total victory.
The UAF have also suffered a total breakdown in the north as a result of their reckless invasion of Kursk (part of the Russian Federation) from the Ukrainian province of Sumy. The Russians repelled the invaders, wiped them out, and advanced in Sumy to create a security perimeter. This can also serve as a jumping off point for an assault on Kiev if the war goes that far.
This is why Putin has rejected Trump&rsquo;s call for an unconditional ceasefire. The UAF and Zelensky naturally want a ceasefire to rearm, rest and reposition for a continuation of the war. Russia will never agree because they are winning decisively and have the UAF in full retreat or else surrounded. This is where Trump&rsquo;s failure to understand Russia and the Russian way of war begins to echo in the global economy.
<h2 class="subhead">Sanctions and Assistance Won&rsquo;t Work</h2>
Putin will enter negotiations and end the war at any time but only on his terms. Trump believes he has leverage over Putin through economic sanctions and new deliveries of weapons and money to Ukraine. Trump is wrong on both counts. Here&rsquo;s why:
Every U.S. weapons system supplied to Ukraine since 2022 has failed. The Russians can jam the GPS guidance systems in the HIMARS artillery. Patriot anti-missile systems (that cost a billion dollars each) can&rsquo;t stop Russian hypersonic missiles and have been blown up one at a time. Abrams, Challenger and Leopard tanks supplied by NATO have been left burning on the battlefield. The F-16 fighter jets supplied by Biden are being shot down by advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems.
Supplying more failed weapons systems won&rsquo;t change the tide of war. Money won&rsquo;t help either because it&rsquo;s simply stolen by the Ukrainian neo-Nazi oligarchs.
Trump gave Putin an ultimatum, which expired on August 8. Putin did not comply (and no serious analyst expected he would). Trump will now lose face and lose credibility if he does not punish Russia. Hundreds of economic sanctions on Russia have failed since 2023. The Russian economy is outperforming the U.S. economy, and the ruble is at the same level against the dollar as before the war. New sanctions will also fail. Weapons and money will fail for the reasons described above.
<h2 class="subhead">What&rsquo;s Left for Trump?</h2>
Trump&rsquo;s next move involves secondary sanctions. These are economic sanctions imposed on third parties that do business with Russia instead of being imposed on Russia itself. The main targets for secondary sanctions are China and India.
Both China and India purchase large amounts of Russian oil. They pay mainly in U.S. dollars. Those dollars fuel the Russian war machine. Trump threatens to impose huge tariffs on Chinese and Indian exports to the United States if those countries don&rsquo;t stop buying Russian oil. This is the set-up for another Trump failure.
India and China need the Russian oil to fuel their growing economies. They will continue to buy it. At that point, Trump may impose the tariffs. But at the same time, India and China are both engaged in regular trade negotiations with the White House as the U.S. has been doing with countries around the world. It should come as no surprise that the India and China tariff negotiations have not been going well. Why should they agree to regular tariffs without knowing whether punitive tariffs are right around the corner? They won&rsquo;t.
China and India have various ways to respond. They could redirect their exports to friendly countries in Europe or Brazil and Australia. They could impose countervailing tariffs on U.S. exports to them, including soybeans and high-tech. They could restrict U.S. investment in their growing economies. The list goes on. What is certain is that the Trump tactic of secondary sanctions will hurt world trade and increase costs on many traded goods.
The biggest single cost will be a higher price for oil. That&rsquo;s because Russia, India and China will all incur costs in insurance markets and ghost tanker fleets needed to evade the sanctions in the first place. Who wins from higher oil prices? Russia. Who loses? U.S. consumers who pay higher prices for gas at the pump compared to a world without sanctions.
<h2 class="subhead">The Solution? Flood The Oil Market</h2>
The best course for Trump to end the war and help Americans is to end the sanctions on Russia and refrain from any secondary sanctions. The next step is to flood the market with oil whether it comes from Russia, Saudi Arabia or the U.S. itself. That would drive the price of oil from $65.00 per barrel to $40.00 per barrel or even lower.
Who loses from low oil prices? Russia. Oil prices of $40.00 or less will bring Putin to the bargaining table and help end the war in Ukraine. Trump doesn&rsquo;t understand how markets work and where the real leverage is against Russia. He&rsquo;s under the sway of the neocons and warmongers like Lindsey Graham, Keith Kellog and Marco Rubio. Based on their advice, Trump will continue to fail in Ukraine and with Russia.
The economic impact of Trump&rsquo;s misguided approach to Ukraine will not be highly inflationary but it will stand in the way of any disinflationary trend. Oil prices will move higher as Trump gets more desperate to put pressure on Putin. Let&rsquo;s hope that the more reasonable voices like JD Vance and Pete Hegseth can persuade Trump to avoid the secondary sanctions on China and India. That could moderate oil prices. But I wouldn&rsquo;t count on it. For now, the warmongers seem to be in charge.
We will keep a close eye on the Trump-Putin meeting this Friday for any breakthroughs in negotiations. Right now, Russia is holding all the cards.

What Ends the War in Ukraine? More Oil

It's prom season in Silicon Valley, and everyone's scrambling to pair up.
No one wants to be left alone on the big night.
OpenAI, this decade's undisputed AI prom queen, was once exclusively on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)&rsquo;s arm.
But things have changed.
In recent weeks, Microsoft and OpenAI have struggled to agree on terms for their next deal.
The partnership that launched the AI revolution is showing cracks.
While Microsoft invested $13.75 billion in OpenAI and built the supercomputers that made ChatGPT possible, the relationship has gotten complicated.
The two companies are now competing for the same customers.
And OpenAI is looking for more dance partners.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The $30 Billion/yr AI Deal</h2>
Last month, Oracle (ORCL) disclosed a cloud deal that would generate a staggering $30 billion in annual revenue.
This week, we learned that customer is OpenAI.
Yes, that's $30 billion in a single year.
For perspective, Oracle's entire cloud revenue last year was just $24.5 billion.
This is a monster deal that sent Oracle's stock to an all-time high.
Oracle is an investment we added to the Altucher Investment Network portfolio last May, which is now up over 110%.
But Oracle isn't the only new friend in OpenAI's circle.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Slicing the Trillion-Dollar AI Pie</h2>
Google (GOOG) Cloud has also quietly been added to OpenAI's list of suppliers.
This is particularly interesting given that Google is OpenAI's biggest competitor in the AI race.
For Microsoft, this new "open relationship" status isn't necessarily bad news.
Yesterday's earnings proved just how well Microsoft is doing without exclusive access to OpenAI.
The company beat expectations across every metric, with revenue coming in $2.5 billion ahead of forecasts.
Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, grew 39% - well above the expected 34-35% range.
More importantly, Microsoft's AI investments are already paying off.
The company now has over 100 million people using its Copilot AI tools each month.
After three years of deep integration with OpenAI's technology, Microsoft has built enough AI capabilities into its products that it could conceivably succeed without OpenAI.
The earnings call also revealed that Microsoft can now process 90% more AI requests using the same computer chips compared to a year ago.
This efficiency gain means they're getting much more value from every dollar spent on AI infrastructure.
Microsoft's Azure cloud platform remains the preferred choice for businesses, with 57% of IT leaders planning to increase their Azure spending in the next year.
Yesterday's results showed Azure revenue for the full year topped $75 billion - the first time Microsoft has shared this number publicly
Still, Microsoft and OpenAI are likely to remain close.
Bloomberg reports they're nearing an agreement that would give Microsoft ongoing access to OpenAI's technology.
However, no updates on those negotiations were mentioned during yesterday's earnings call.
The bigger story here isn't about who's dating whom.
It's about the unstoppable demand for AI infrastructure.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Insatiable Demand</h2>
Microsoft's latest results show that even with recent economic uncertainty, companies are rushing to adopt AI tools.
The company's commercial bookings grew 30% to over $100 billion for the first time.
The pie is growing so fast that everyone can get a bigger slice.
We're seeing unprecedented demand for AI computing resources.
Sam Altman, OpenAI's CEO, recently tweeted: "If anyone has GPU capacity in 100,000 chunks we can get ASAP, please call!"
That wasn't a joke.
OpenAI is desperately seeking more computing power wherever it can find it.
Microsoft faces the same challenge - CFO Amy Hood said the company still has more demand than supply for its AI services.
This is why OpenAI needs Oracle, Google, and yes, still Microsoft.
No single cloud provider can satisfy the growing hunger for AI computing power.
For investors, this means one thing: the companies providing the picks and shovels for the AI gold rush will continue to thrive.
Microsoft stock is up roughly 4.5% today, putting the company&rsquo;s valuation at just under $4 trillion.
Whether it's Microsoft, Oracle, Google, or the chip makers powering it all, the infrastructure providers are positioned to generate extraordinary returns as AI transforms every industry.
This isn't just another tech cycle.
The wealth being created by AI will likely be generational, flowing primarily to those who own the fundamental building blocks enabling this revolution.
The prom may be getting crowded, but there's plenty of punch to go around.

ALN0UPDATE-07-31-25-IMG-POST

OpenAI's Open Relationship

We&rsquo;re seeing a lot of talk about overbought conditions right now across the market. The financial media loves to talk a big game about pullbacks and anything that will get investors fearful and clicking on their headlines.
While it is true that stocks are getting a little overbought here, it&rsquo;s not set in stone that we&rsquo;ll see a broad pullback soon or even at all!
You see, the stock market doesn&rsquo;t move in straight lines. And while it's tempting to assume that every rally ends in a sharp pullback, the reality is more nuanced.
In these types of environments investors often brace for a correction. But overbought conditions can resolve in several ways, not all of them involve steep declines.
Let&rsquo;s start by talking a bit about what overbought actually means.
The term typically refers to a situation where stocks have moved up too far, too fast, relative to their historical trend or technical indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index). It's a signal that bullish enthusiasm may have run a bit hot.
But being overbought doesn't mean the market must pull back.
It simply means that prices have outrun fundamentals, or investor sentiment has reached optimistic extremes and some sort of cooling-off may be in order.
Rather than predicting doom every time stocks stretch higher, it's more productive to understand a few different ways the market can digest these elevated levels&hellip;
One of the most common, often overlooked, ways to work off overbought conditions is through consolidation.
In this scenario, prices trade sideways within a range for weeks or even months. There&rsquo;s little downside, but also little upside.
This kind of action helps reset valuations, cool off sentiment, and allow earnings or economic data to catch up to price levels.
Ironically enough, these types of situations can be even more frustrating than a broad pullback due to the amount of time it takes to resolve.
It can be frustrating for momentum traders but healthy for the overall structure of the market. You can think of it as the market catching its breath.
Another way stocks can find their way out of overbought conditions is through a shift in leadership.
If tech stocks led the rally and are now overbought, money may rotate into energy, industrials, or financials. This quiet handoff beneath the surface helps ease pressure without dragging the entire market lower.
So while the broader indices may not show dramatic movement, there could be an active rebalancing to reset in relative strength under the hood.
And yes, sometimes the market does take a breather by pulling back.
Prices may fall 3&ndash;5% or more as investors lock in profits and wait for better entry points.
This is the most obvious resolution and what many expect when they hear the term overbought.
The key point, though, is that not every dip signals the start of a deeper bear market. It's often just the market resetting expectations and absorbing gains.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
Reacting to overbought signals with fear or excessive caution can lead to missed opportunities. Instead of exiting positions prematurely or without a plan, it may be more prudent to tighten stop-losses, reduce risk in extended names, or look for relative strength in under-owned sectors.
It also highlights the value of patience.
Just because a stock or index has run hot doesn&rsquo;t mean the only option is a fast reversal. Sometimes the market just needs time to restore balance.
Overbought signals are just that, signals.
They suggest caution, not a total panic move.
What comes next might be a pullback, sure. But it could just as easily be a cooling period, a sector rotation, or even continued strength if sentiment doesn&rsquo;t slow down or we get some good news to support another leg higher.
For investors, the key is not to assume the worst, but to stay flexible, watch for signs of shifting momentum, and stick to your strategy.

lir-update-07-24-25-img post

Overbought Conditions Can Resolve in a Variety of Ways

After six months of drama, threats and compromise, Trump&rsquo;s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is now law. But what&rsquo;s in it and how will it impact you and your money?
This summary is qualified by the fact that the bill is over 1,000 pages long and it&rsquo;s impossible to cover every provision and loophole in a single article.
Even with the items mentioned below, there are technical definitions and exceptions to exceptions that require expert analysis beyond the scope of one article. Some of the tax credits and deductions are phased out for those with high incomes. Different effective dates mean that some of these provisions are not effective until 2026.
That said, here are the highlights:
&bull; Permanently extends the lower tax rates Trump passed in 2017. &bull; Increases the standard deduction by $750 for individuals and $1,500 for couples. &bull; Permanent increase in the child tax credit to $2,200. &bull; Full expensing of business capital investment and domestic research and development expenses. &bull; Eliminates most itemized deductions. &bull; Limits on gambling loss deductions so that winnings may still be taxed. &bull; Eliminates the moving expense deduction except for active-duty military and intelligence officials. &bull; Raise the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000. &bull; No tax on overtime pay up to $12,500 for individuals and $25,000 for a couple. &bull; No tax on tips up to $25,000. &bull; Tax credits allowed for contributions to groups that fund private school scholarships. &bull; Increase the reporting threshold for payments to independent contractors. &bull; Taxes on farmland sales can be paid in installments. &bull; Eliminate the firearms transfer tax. &bull; Increase the income tax on large college endowments.
<h2 class="subhead">Other Changes and Provisions</h2>
In addition to these provisions, there are some important changes of note.
Environmental related provisions will expedite environmental reviews for investment projects and rescind funds under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (actually the Green New Scam in disguise) for green energy programs that were diverted to progressive activist groups.
In the area of natural resources, the OBBB will replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that was depleted by Joe Biden for political purposes. The moratorium on new coal leasing permits will end. Oil and gas leasing in Alaska is approved. Onshore oil and gas lease sales will be expanded, and timber harvesting will be increased.
This is why your American Birthright is more important than ever. As the Trump administration makes it easier for energy and mining companies to do business with the federal government, it opens up profit opportunities for you as an investor.
Of course, there&rsquo;s more to the OBBB, but the most important provisions are noted above. This list of funding, recissions and tax programs show that OBBB was truly a landmark piece of legislation comparable to LBJ&rsquo;s Great Society and FDR&rsquo;s Hundred Days programs.
The ultimate success of the OBBB remains to be seen, but there is no question about its economic impact on affected programs and that it was an historic example of promises made and promises kept by President Trump.

The Beautiful Bill: How It Impacts You

You probably saw the dramatic headlines too.
Last quarter, Tesla (TSLA)&rsquo;s car sales slipped 13%.
But what you might not have noticed was that another part of their business exploded 154% higher.
And the powerful force driving that rapid growth is about to become the most important investment story of the decade.
You see, Tesla isn't just a car company anymore.
It&rsquo;s the company building the infrastructure that will prevent America's power grid from collapsing under the weight of the AI revolution&hellip;
<h2 class="subhead nbp">A Crisis Nobody Saw Coming</h2>
Meta learned this lesson during their LLaMa 3 training. Their research paper mentions "instant fluctuations of power consumption across the datacenter on the order of tens of megawatts, stretching the limits of the power grid."
Meta experienced these fluctuations at a 30-megawatt facility with &ldquo;just&rdquo; 24,000 GPUs.
So imagine the fluctuations at a more massive AI training operation with over 100,000 GPUs working in perfect synchronization.
Suddenly, all those processors pause for a checkpoint save. In milliseconds, gigawatts of power demand vanishes from the grid. Then, just as quickly, it all comes roaring back online when the training run restarts.
Our century-old power grid was never designed for an electronic heartbeat this massive that can flatline and restart in fractions of a second.
Engineers are so desperate they've created a command to generate dummy workloads just to keep power stable. Even though, at the gigawatt scale, those dummy workloads cost tens of millions annually in wasted electricity.
Recent analysis from Texas's grid operator reveals the nightmare scenario: if just 2.6 gigawatts of datacenter load suddenly disconnects, the entire state faces cascading blackouts.
This isn't theoretical. In July 2024, 1.5 gigawatts of Virginia data centers unexpectedly disconnected, and grid operators barely prevented a regional blackout.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Scale of What's Coming</h2>
Goldman Sachs estimates data center power demand will grow 160% by 2030.
Deloitte projects AI's share of total datacenter demand rising from 12% to 70%, with combined utility and hyperscaler capital expenditures reaching $1 trillion by 2032.
We're heading toward 176 gigawatts of total datacenter demand by 2035, with AI representing almost three quarters of that figure.
It will be the most unstable load the grid has ever seen.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Enter Tesla's Strategic Position</h2>
During the first quarter, Tesla&rsquo;s energy storage business deployed 10.4 gigawatt-hours of batteries, generating $2.73 billion in revenue with 26.2% profit margins.
The company&rsquo;s Megapack 2 XL is a giant battery. But it&rsquo;s more than that &ndash; it&rsquo;s a grid stabilization tool.
These systems can absorb or inject hundreds of megawatts in milliseconds, perfectly matching the chaotic power patterns of AI training.
Each Megapack stores 3.9 megawatt-hours of energy, enough to power 3,600 homes for an hour. More importantly, they can charge and discharge at megawatt per millisecond rates.
The financial results are already accruing to Tesla. The energy business generated $10.1 billion in revenue during 2024, growing 67% with supply constraints limiting even faster expansion.
Musk recently said "it won't be long" before Tesla's energy storage business ships 100GWh per year, eventually growing to "multiple terawatt-hours per year."
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Money Trail </h2>
The revenue opportunity is materializing faster than anyone expected.
Tesla just signed a 4 billion yuan ($556 million) deal to build China's largest grid-scale battery power plant, marking their first major grid-storage project in the world's second-largest economy.
This is particularly significant because Tesla beat domestic Chinese champions like CATL, which holds 40% of global market share.
Meanwhile, Musk&rsquo;s xAI invested $230 million in Tesla Megapacks for their Memphis "Colossus" facility, Intersect Power ordered 15.3 GWh of Megapacks for projects through 2030, and Massachusetts contracted $413 million for 800 MWh of storage capacity.
Every hyperscaler racing to build AI infrastructure faces the same choice: install grid stabilization systems or risk getting disconnected by utilities.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">It&rsquo;s A Big Platform Play</h2>
Tesla isn't building separate businesses &ndash; they're building one integrated technology platform capturing revenue across multiple trillion-dollar markets.
The same power management technology that will keep Optimus robots running powers these grid-scale batteries. Musk&rsquo;s dreams of colonizing Mars will require identical ultra-reliable energy storage technology.
Unlike selling cars where Tesla gets paid once, battery electric storage systems (BESS) can generate recurring revenue through grid stabilization services, demand response programs worth hundreds of thousands per facility annually, energy arbitrage trading, and backup power contracts.
A single gigawatt-scale datacenter requires $500 million to $1 billion in battery infrastructure that Tesla operates and monetizes for decades.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">The Competition Vacuum</h2>
Traditional UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply) companies make systems for brief power outages, not continuous grid balancing.
Their largest systems handle tens of megawatts, while Tesla deploys hundreds.
Battery startups lack manufacturing scale, but Tesla's Lathrop Megafactory now produces 200 Megapacks per week with Shanghai adding 20GWh more capacity.
Chinese battery companies face geopolitical restrictions on critical infrastructure deployments.
Tesla has an early mover advantage, proven reliability at scale, and existing relationships with every major AI company.
And their over-the-air software updates mean Megapacks get better over time, just like their cars.
<h2 class="subhead nbp">Investment Implications</h2>
The market is still pricing Tesla as an automotive company facing EV competition, but the energy storage opportunity alone could justify Tesla's entire $960 billion market cap.
Tesla solved the most critical infrastructure challenge of the AI revolution before most people realized it existed.
While automotive investors worry about EV competition, Tesla became essential infrastructure for global AI dominance.
The company that made electric cars cool is now the company that can keep the AI revolution from breaking the world's power grids.
That's not a car company anymore.
It&rsquo;s a platform company positioned at the center of every major technology trend of the next decade.

ALN-UPDATE-07-09-25-IMG-POST

Elon’s New $2 Trillion Grid Empire

It&rsquo;s time to clear up one of the biggest misunderstandings in capital markets today. It&rsquo;s a misunderstanding that can lead to disastrous results for investors if not explained and viewed correctly.
We all know that the U.S. national debt just crossed the $37 trillion mark. It&rsquo;s growing so fast that it will hit $38 trillion not long after you read this. The debt has gone up millions of dollars while I&rsquo;ve been writing this. Despite the work of DOGE and the White House, Trump&rsquo;s Big Beautiful Bill will add even more to debt and deficits.
At the same time, the U.S. has weaponized the dollar in the geopolitical battlespace. We&rsquo;ve put economic sanctions on Russia, secondary sanctions on China, and worked with NATO to steal $300 billion in lawfully purchased U.S. Treasury securities from Russia. All of these sanctions were facilitated by the role of the U.S. dollar as the leading reserve currency.
This combination of seemingly out-of-control debt and deficits and a weaponized dollar have caused many countries to re-think their dollar reserve holdings. This is part of the explanation for the massive accumulation of gold bullion by major central banks and finance ministries. Gold has no yield but it serves as an everything hedge against inflation, war, social unrest and natural disaster. Best of all, gold is physical, not digital, and cannot be frozen, seized or confiscated by political enemies. If you have physical gold in secure vaults, it&rsquo;s yours short of a full-scale invasion of your country.
The description above is accurate. Debt and deficits are growing. The dollar has been weaponized. Central banks and finance ministries are accumulating enormous amounts of gold. The problem is that these facts have given rise to a narrative that is completely false. And it&rsquo;s a narrative that could lead investors to significant losses in the months ahead.
<h2 class="subhead">The Narrative</h2>
The narrative goes like this: The days of the dollar as the leading reserve currency are coming to an end. Countries are eagerly seeking alternatives (in addition to gold), which could include cryptocurrencies or a new currency being planned by the BRICS. The euro has been strong against the U.S. dollar for the past six months and euro-denominated bonds issued by Germany and Italy may offer another investment avenue. China has been promoting the yuan as a payment currency with potential to become a reserve currency in future. Russia, Iran and other countries are seeking a way out from under U.S. dollar sanctions. Putting all of these factors together, it appears that the move away from the U.S. dollar is in full swing.
Another part of the narrative is that U.S. debt and deficits have spooked the bond market. The so-called bond vigilantes are ready to dump U.S. Treasuries or at least demand higher interest rates to own them. These higher rates will make the U.S. deficit even worse and set off a debt death spiral that will end in hyperinflation or U.S. default.
So, the world is ditching the dollar and U.S. institutions are ditching U.S. bonds. The sky is about to fall. Investors have been encouraged to dump Treasuries, buy stocks and enjoy the show.
<h2 class="subhead">Here Are The Facts</h2>
Interest rates on U.S. Treasuries have not been soaring. In fact, they&rsquo;ve been falling sharply at the short-end of the yield curve and coming down gradually in the intermediate sector (5-year and 10-year maturities).
The yield-to-maturity on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.5% in mid-April. Today, it&rsquo;s 4.25%. That&rsquo;s not a sell-off; that&rsquo;s a rally. Bond prices move inversely to rates so investors in U.S. Treasury had nice capital gains on that rate decline.
The yield-to-maturity on the pivotal 2-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.0% in mid-April. Today it&rsquo;s 3.75%. Another rally. The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill at the short end of the yield curve was 4.38% in mid-May and sits at 4.30% today. Another capital gain for investors.
So, where&rsquo;s the selloff in Treasuries? It doesn&rsquo;t exist. The term &ldquo;bond vigilantes&rdquo; was coined in the 1980s in response to hyperinflation in the late 1970s. The bond vigilantes haven&rsquo;t saddled up since then. That&rsquo;s ancient history. Treasuries are performing strongly &ndash; rates down and prices up producing gains for investors. The bond sell-off part of the narrative is simply false.
What about the &ldquo;end of the dollar&rdquo; part of the narrative. Here are the facts: The BRICS are not creating a new currency. They may in time, but that can take ten years to develop (based on the euro) and thirty years to replace an existing dominant reserve currency (the time it took sterling to decline from 1914-1944). So, don&rsquo;t hold your breath for that.
The BRICS are buying gold, but we&rsquo;ve already acknowledged that gold is an alternative to the dollar. But there are limits on that since gold cannot be used for payments unless physically transferred. And massive gold sales for cash would sink the price. Gold is a monetary asset, but it does not replace cash.
The dollar doom crowd points to another data set instead. They look at the Treasury International Capital System (TIC), which is a periodic report of holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by major holders. By comparing TIC reports over time, you can ascertain if foreign central banks are increasing or decreasing their holdings.
According to the most recent TIC report, Chinese holdings of Treasuries declined from $759 billion at the end of 2024 to $757 billion at the end of April 2025 (most recent data available). Hong Kong holdings declined from $255 billion at the end of 2024 to $247 billion at the end of April 2025. South Korean holdings of Treasuries declined from $124.9 billion to $121.7 billion over the same four-month period. Treasury holdings by Saudi Arabia declined from $137.5 billion to $133.8 billion in the same period.
Aha! The dollar doom crowd point to these declines in Treasury holdings as proof that foreign central banks are dumping U.S. Treasuries ahead of an impending loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar and dollar-denominated Treasury securities. Case closed.
There are numerous flaws in this part of the narrative. It is true that Treasury holdings decreased from December to April in the countries noted above. But Treasury holdings increased over the same period in the UK, Belgium, Cayman, Luxembourg, France and Switzerland. So, the dumping narrative does not hold up when a broader list of countries is considered. Importantly, Belgium, Cayman and Luxembourg are well-known tax havens or clearing centers that act as proxies for holdings by China and major hedge funds. It&rsquo;s difficult to conclude that China is reducing its Treasury holdings without more information about the true owners behind the Cayman Islands accounts.
<h2 class="subhead">The Real Reason for Dumping Treasuries</h2>
There&rsquo;s an even more powerful refutation of the narrative that reduced Treasury holdings mean a run on the dollar. Even in the face of reduced Treasury holdings by a major foreign holder, one must ask why? The narrative says the holder is dumping Treasuries and fleeing the dollar. The opposite is true.
Central banks do not actually hold dollars in their reserve accounts. They hold dollar-denominated securities mostly U.S. Treasuries. There&rsquo;s a difference. Dollars are cash, which can be held in the form of bank deposits, money market funds or short-term Treasury bills in 4-week maturities. Treasury securities are often 2-year, 5-year, or 10-year maturity notes or even 30-year bonds. Those securities are safe and liquid but they&rsquo;re not cash.
When China sells Treasury securities, they do so to get cash to prop up their currency or bail out their banks. They&rsquo;re not running from Treasuries; they wish they had more. The reality behind the curtain of the international monetary system is that there&rsquo;s a global dollar shortage, which is bordering on a major monetary liquidity crisis. Selling Treasuries is a way to get cash in a world that is starving for dollars. Far from a sign that the dollar is in decline, these sales of Treasuries are symptomatic of a world that needs more dollars, not fewer.
<h3 class="subhead">A Good Set-up For Investors</h3>
As usual, the narrative bears no relationship to reality. The narrative claims the dollar is about to be abandoned as the global reserve currency and bond vigilantes are demanding higher interest rates on Treasuries. The reality is that central banks are starved for dollars and interest rates are declining and will decline further. This is a set-up for capital gains for those who invest in Treasury securities today.
Don&rsquo;t follow the Global Reset crowd at the moment. The dollar and Treasury securities are doing just fine. So will investors who buy them now.

Soaring resource costs&hellip; crashing stock prices&hellip; chaos on Wall Street&hellip;
Today&rsquo;s markets may seem more unpredictable than ever.
But drawing on his experience with the Central Intelligence Agency, Jim Rickards has developed a system for pinpointing the best times to enter and exit a trade.
It reveals the exact cross-section where you have enough good information to be smart AND still have time to effectively act.&nbsp;
And while the U.S. government has been using this system to predict geopolitical events for decades, Jim is the first to apply it to the investment markets.
He calls it the &ldquo;Kissinger Cross&rdquo; strategy&hellip; and it&rsquo;s only available in The Situation Report with Jim Rickards.
Jim and his team use it to detect big moves in gold, energy, currencies and commodities before they happen. Then it&rsquo;s just a matter of pairing that knowledge with the right trades &mdash; for chances to quickly multiply your money.
So don&rsquo;t be a victim of Wall Street&rsquo;s sudden ups and downs.
With The Situation Report with Jim Rickards, you can harness the power of the &ldquo;Kissinger Cross&rdquo; strategy &mdash; for a chance at big profits from gold, energy, currencies and commodities.

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Paradigm Press LLC, provides independent economic commentary, analysis and education through print and online publications, videos, online seminars, conference calls and more.

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Rickards Uncensored Call (with Byron King 1/5/2024)

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